IBM Analytics IBM Watson dataplatform Gør det enkelt for alle data og forretningsfolk å samarbeide, visualisere og dele kritiske innsikt i organisasjonen din for å avdekke forretningsmessige ideer raskere. Denne unike, integrerte plattformen for selvbetjening gjør det enkelt å få tilgang til alle typer data og bruke AI-drevet beslutningsprosess for bedre data-drevne resultater. SPSS Prediktiv analyse IBM SPSS predictive analytics-programvare tilbyr avanserte teknikker i en brukervennlig pakke som hjelper deg med å finne nye muligheter, forbedre effektiviteten og minimere risikoen. IBM DB2 Database IBM DB2 er den valgte databasen for enterprise-wide løsninger. Optimalisert for å levere bransjeledende ytelse samtidig som kostnadene reduseres, tilbyr IBM DB2 ekstrem ytelse, fleksibilitet, skalerbarhet og pålitelighet for enhver størrelsesorganisasjon. Cognos Analytics på Cloud Business Intelligence Få den selvbetjening du forventer, datastyreadministrasjon du trenger, og rapportere du stoler på en sikker forretningssentral programvare-as-a-service (SaaS) - løsning. IBM BigInsights Hadoop IBM BigInsights er en industristandard Hadoop tilbyr som kombinerer det beste av åpen kildekode-programvare med enterprise-grade evner. IBM Planning Analytics Financial Performance Management En rask, enkel, fleksibel og komplett cloud planning løsning som innebærer kraftig analyse i dine daglige beslutningsprosesser. IBM Incentive Compensation Management Sales Performance Management En svært fleksibel og skalerbar løsning for å automatisere incentivberegninger og gi online kompensasjonsoppgavene og rapportering for ansatte. Det er hevende data mining krav på mange områder innen Honda, men dette var ikke nok for LOB ledere å bestemme seg for å bruke analytics i sin virkelige verden, for kostnadsreduksjon, operasjonseffektivitet og ny verdiskaping. Turkcell jobbet med IBM Business Partner Aksis for å dykke inn i millioner av kundekontraktsdokumenter for å bedre forstå deres kommunikasjonspreferanser og drive smartere markedsføringsstrategier samtidig som det sikres at myndighetene overholder regelverket. Bytte regneark med IBM Analytics-løsninger sparte nordvestuniversitetsbudsjettet analytikere massevis av tid og arbeid. SEGES jobber med Mjlner Informatics, en innovativ programvare og designkonsulent, og bruker IBM Watson Analytics til å utforske relevante data og få dypere og mer praktisk innsikt i oppdrettsutviklingen. Furk er din personlige sikre lagring som henter mediefiler og lar deg straks streame dem. Du kan bruke det å streame video eller høre på musikk fra PC, smarttelefon, HTPC eller til og med en spillkonsoll (XBOX, PS3). Service grenser: Båndbredde grense: opptil 250 GB per måned Disklagringsgrense: ubegrenset (så lenge filer er fra offentlige kilder) Furk er ikke en fil locker og støtter ikke filharing for profitt. Logg inn eller registrer deg Logg inn eller Opprett en konto med din favoritt sosiale identitetModellerings - og simuleringssystemer Simulering: Den korteste ruten til applikasjoner Dette nettstedet inneholder informasjon om diskret arrangement av systemmodellering og simulering. Det inkluderer diskusjoner om beskrivende simuleringsmodellering, programmeringskommandoer, teknikker for sensitivitetsestimering, optimalisering og målsøking ved simulering og hva-om-analyse. Fremskritt i datakraft, tilgjengeligheten av PC-basert modellering og simulering, og effektiv beregningsmetodikk gir mulighet for prescriptive simuleringsmodellering, for eksempel optimalisering for å forfølge undersøkelser i systemanalyser, design og kontrollprosesser som tidligere var utenfor rekkevidde av modellene og beslutningstakere. Å søke på nettstedet. prøv E dit F inn på side Ctrl f. Skriv inn et ord eller en setning i dialogboksen, f. eks. quote optimizationquot eller quot sensitivityquot Hvis det første uttrykket fra ordfrasen ikke er det du leter etter, kan du prøve F inn Next. Statistikk og sannsynlighet for simuleringstemaer i beskrivende simuleringsmodelleringsteknikker for sensitivitetsestimering Simulasjonsbaserte optimaliseringsteknikker Metamodeling og målsøkende problemer Hva-om-analyse-teknikker Innledning Sammendrag Datasystembrukere, administratorer og designere har som regel et mål med høyeste ytelse til laveste pris . Modellering og simulering av systemdesign trade off er god forberedelse for design og engineering beslutninger i virkelige verden jobber. På dette nettstedet studerer vi datasystemmodellering og simulering. Vi trenger en skikkelig kunnskap om både teknikkene til simuleringsmodellering og de simulerte systemene selv. Scenariet beskrevet ovenfor er bare en situasjon der datasimulering kan brukes effektivt. I tillegg til bruken som et verktøy for å bedre forstå og optimalisere ytelse og pålitelighet av systemer, simuleres også i stor grad for å verifisere korrektheten av design. De fleste om ikke alle digitale integrerte kretser som er produsert i dag, blir først omfattende simulert før de blir produsert for å identifisere og korrigere designfeil. Simulering tidlig i design syklusen er viktig fordi kostnaden for å reparere feil øker dramatisk senere i produktets livssyklus at feilen oppdages. En annen viktig anvendelse av simulering er å utvikle virtuelle miljøer. f. eks for trening. Analogt med holodeck i det populære science-fiction-tv-programmet Star Trek, genererer simuleringer dynamiske miljøer som brukerne kan samhandle som om de virkelig var der. Slike simuleringer brukes i stor utstrekning i dag for å trene militært personell til slagmarkssituasjoner, til en brøkdel av kostnaden for løpende øvelser som involverer ekte stridsvogner, fly etc. Dynamisk modellering i organisasjoner er den kollektive evne til å forstå konsekvensene av forandring over tid. Denne ferdigheten ligger i hjertet av en vellykket strategisk beslutningsprosess. Tilgjengeligheten av effektiv visuell modellering og simulering gjør det mulig for analytikeren og beslutningstakeren å øke sin dynamiske beslutning ved å øve strategien for å unngå skjulte fallgruver. System Simulering er etterligning av driften av et ekte system, for eksempel den daglige driften av en bank, eller verdien av en aksjeportefølje over en tidsperiode, eller drift av en samlebånd i en fabrikk, eller Personaleoppdraget til et sykehus eller et sikkerhetsselskap, i en datamaskin. I stedet for å bygge omfattende matematiske modeller av eksperter, har den lett tilgjengelige simuleringsprogramvaren gjort det mulig å modellere og analysere driften av et ekte system av ikke-eksperter, som er ledere, men ikke programmerere. En simulering er utførelse av en modell, representert av et dataprogram som gir informasjon om systemet som undersøkes. Simuleringsmetoden for å analysere en modell er i motsetning til den analytiske tilnærmingen, hvor metoden for analyse av systemet er rent teoretisk. Siden denne tilnærmingen er mer pålitelig, gir simuleringsmetoden større fleksibilitet og bekvemmelighet. Modellens aktiviteter består av hendelser som aktiveres på bestemte tidspunkter og på denne måten påvirker systemets generelle tilstand. Tidspunkter som en aktivitet er aktivert er randomisert, slik at ingen inngang fra utsiden av systemet kreves. Hendelser eksisterer autonomt og de er diskrete, så mellom utførelsen av to hendelser skjer ingenting. SIMSCRIPT gir en prosessbasert tilnærming til å skrive et simuleringsprogram. Med denne tilnærmingen består komponentene i programmet av enheter, som kombinerer flere relaterte hendelser i én prosess. I simuleringsområdet har begrepet prinsipp for beregningsekvivalens gunstige implikasjoner for beslutningstakeren. Simulert eksperiment akselererer og erstatter effektivt ventetiden og ser bekymringer i å oppdage ny innsikt og forklaringer på fremtidens oppførsel av det virkelige systemet. Vurder følgende scenario. Du er designeren av en ny bryter for asynkrone overføringsmodus (ATM) - nettverk, en ny bytte teknologi som har dukket opp på markedet de siste årene. For å bidra til å sikre at produktets suksess i dette er et svært konkurransedyktig felt, er det viktig at du designer bryteren for å gi høyest mulig ytelse samtidig som du opprettholder en rimelig produksjonskostnad. Hvor mye minne skal bygges inn i bryteren Skulle minnet bli assosiert med innkommende kommunikasjonsforbindelser til buffermeldinger når de ankommer, eller skal det være knyttet til utgående koblinger for å holde meldinger som konkurrerer om å bruke samme link. Hva er den beste organisasjonen av maskinvarekomponenter i bryteren Dette er bare noen av spørsmålene du må svare når du kommer opp med et design. Med integrering av kunstig intelligens, agenter og andre modelleringsteknikker har simuleringen blitt en effektiv og hensiktsmessig beslutningsstøtte for lederne. Ved å kombinere den fremvoksende vitenskapen om kompleksitet med nyutviklet simuleringsteknologi, bygger Emergent Solutions Group en programvare som gjør det mulig for senior ledelse å spille ut hva som skjer om scenarier i kunstige verdener. For eksempel kan det i forbrukerbutikkmiljø brukes til å finne ut hvordan forbrukernes og medarbeidernes roller kan simuleres for å oppnå topp ytelse. Statistikk for korrelerte data Vi anvender n realisasjoner som er relatert til tid, som har n korrelerte observasjoner, estimatet av gjennomsnittet er gitt ved middel S X i n, hvor summen er over i 1 til n. hvor summen er over j 1 til m, er den estimerte variansen: 1 43 2A S 2 n Hvor S 2 det vanlige variansestimatet rj, x jte koeffisienten for autokorrelasjon m maksimal tidsforsinkelse for hvilke autokorrelasjoner beregnes, slik at j 1, 2, 3. m Som en god tommelfingerregel, bør maksimalforsinkelsen for hvilke autokorrelasjoner beregnes være omtrent 2 av antall n realisasjoner, selv om hver rj, x kan testes for å avgjøre om den er vesentlig forskjellig fra null. Eksempel på størrelsesbestemmelse: Vi kan beregne den minste prøvestørrelse som kreves av n 1 43 2A S 2 t 2 (d 2 middel 2) Søknad: En pilotkjøring ble laget av en modell, observasjoner nummerert 150, gjennomsnittet var 205,74 minutter og variansen S 2 101, 921,54 ble estimatene av lagkoeffisientene beregnet som: r 1, x 0,3301 r 2, x 0,2993 og r 3, x 0,1987. Beregn minste prøvestørrelse for å sikre at estimatet ligger innenfor 43 d 10 av det sanne gjennomsnittet med en 0,05. n (1,96) 2 (101,921,54) 1 43 2 (1-14) 0,3301 43 (1 - 24) 0,2993 43 (1-34) 0,1987 (0,1) 2 (205,74) 2 Hva er sentrale grense teorem ideen om sentrale grense teorem (CLT) er at gjennomsnittet av en prøve av observasjoner trukket fra noen befolkning med hvilken som helst formdistribusjon er omtrentlig fordelt som en normal fordeling dersom visse betingelser er oppfylt. I teoretisk statistikk er det flere versjoner av sentrale grense teorem avhengig av hvordan disse forholdene er angitt. Disse er opptatt av hvilke antagelser som er gjort om fordelingen av foreldrepopulasjonen (befolkning som prøven trekkes fra) og selve prøvetakingsprosedyren. En av de enkleste versjoner av teorien sier at hvis det er en tilfeldig prøve av størrelse n (si n større enn 30) fra en uendelig populasjon, er det en endelig standardavvik. så konvergerer den standardiserte prøven til en normal normalfordeling, eller tilnærmet nærmer gjennomsnittet gjennomsnittlig en normalfordeling med gjennomsnittlig lik populasjonsmiddelverdien og standardavviket tilsvarer standardavviket for befolkningen dividert med kvadratroten av prøvestørrelse n. I applikasjoner av den sentrale grenseetningen til praktiske problemer i statistisk inngrep, er statistikere imidlertid mer interessert i hvor nært den omtrentlige fordeling av prøvemediet følger en normal fordeling for endelige utvalgsstørrelser enn selve begrensningsfordelingen. Tilstrekkelig nær avtale med en normal distribusjon gjør det mulig for statistikere å bruke normal teori for å lage avledninger om populasjonsparametere (som gjennomsnittet) ved hjelp av prøvens gjennomsnitt, uavhengig av den faktiske formen for foreldrepopulasjonen. Det er velkjent at uansett foreldrepopulasjonen, vil den standardiserte variabelen ha en fordeling med en gjennomsnittlig 0 og standardavvik 1 under tilfeldig prøvetaking. Videre, hvis foreldrepopulasjonen er normal, blir den distribuert akkurat som en vanlig normal variabel for ethvert positivt heltall n. Den sentrale grense-teorien angir det bemerkelsesverdige resultatet at selv om foreldrepopulasjonen ikke er normal, er standardvariabelen omtrent normal hvis prøvestørrelsen er stor nok (si gt 30). Det er generelt ikke mulig å angi betingelser under hvilke tilnærming gitt av sentrale grense teorem fungerer og hvilke prøvestørrelser som er nødvendige før tilnærming blir god nok. Som en generell retningslinje har statistikere brukt reseptbeløpet at hvis foreldrefordelingen er symmetrisk og relativt kort-tailed, når prøvemidlet tilnærmet normalitet for mindre prøver enn hvis foreldrepopulasjonen er skjev eller langstått. I denne leksjonen vil vi studere oppførselen til gjennomsnittet av prøver av forskjellige størrelser hentet fra en rekke foreldrepopulasjoner. Undersøkelse av prøvetakingsfordelinger av prøveinnretninger beregnet fra prøver av forskjellige størrelser trukket fra en rekke distribusjoner, tillater oss å få litt innsikt i oppførsel av prøvenes gjennomsnitt under de spesifikke forholdene, samt undersøke gyldigheten av retningslinjene nevnt ovenfor for bruk av sentrale grense teorem i praksis. Under visse forhold, i store prøver, kan prøvetakningsfordelingen av prøvemidlet tilnærmet ved en normal fordeling. Prøvestørrelsen som trengs for at tilnærmingen skal være tilstrekkelig, avhenger sterkt av formen på foreldringsfordelingen. Symmetri (eller mangel derav) er spesielt viktig. For en symmetrisk fordeling av foreldre, selv om det er svært forskjellig fra formen til en normal fordeling, kan det oppnås en tilstrekkelig tilnærming med små prøver (for eksempel 10 eller 12 for uniformfordeling). For symmetriske kortstammede foreldrefordeler når gjennomsnittet til omtrentlig normalitet for mindre prøver enn hvis foreldrepopulasjonen er skjev og langstått. I noen ekstreme tilfeller (for eksempel binomial) er det behov for prøvestørrelser som langt overstiger de typiske retningslinjene (f. eks. 30) for en tilstrekkelig tilnærming. For noen distribusjoner uten første og andre øyeblikk (for eksempel Cauchy) holder ikke den sentrale grense teorien. Hva er en minste kvadratmodell Mange problemer med å analysere data involverer å beskrive hvordan variabler er relaterte. Den enkleste av alle modellene som beskriver forholdet mellom to variabler er en lineær eller rettlinjemodell. Den enkleste metoden for å montere en lineær modell er å øye-ball en linje gjennom dataene på en tomt. En mer elegant og konvensjonell metode er den minste kvadrater som finner linjen som minimerer summen av avstander mellom observerte punkter og den tilpassede linjen. Innse at det er vanskelig å montere den beste linjen ved øyet, spesielt når det er mye restvariabilitet i dataene. Vet at det er en enkel forbindelse mellom de numeriske koeffisientene i regresjonsligningen og hellingen og avskjæringen av regresjonslinjen. Vet at en enkelt oppsummeringsstatistikk som en korrelasjonskoeffisient ikke forteller hele historien. Et spredningsdiagram er et viktig supplement til å undersøke forholdet mellom de to variablene. ANOVA: Variansanalyse Tester vi har lært opp til dette punktet, tillater oss å teste hypoteser som undersøker forskjellen mellom bare to måter. Analyse av variasjon eller ANOVA vil tillate oss å teste forskjellen mellom 2 eller flere midler. ANOVA gjør dette ved å undersøke forholdet mellom variasjon mellom to forhold og variabilitet innenfor hver tilstand. For eksempel, si at vi gir et stoff som vi tror vil forbedre minnet til en gruppe mennesker og gi en placebo til en annen gruppe mennesker. Vi kan måle minneytelsen med antall ord som er tilbakekalt fra en liste vi ber alle å huske. En t-test vil sammenligne sannsynligheten for å observere forskjellen i det gjennomsnittlige antallet ord som er tilbakekalt for hver gruppe. En ANOVA-test, derimot, ville sammenligne variasjonen som vi observerer mellom de to forholdene til variabiliteten observert i hver tilstand. Husk at vi måler variabilitet som summen av forskjellen på hver poengsum fra gjennomsnittet. Når vi faktisk beregner en ANOVA, vil vi bruke en kortsiktig formel. Når variasjonen vi forutser (mellom de to gruppene) er mye større enn variasjonen vi ikke spår (innen hver gruppe), vil vi konkludere med at våre behandlinger produserer forskjellige resultater. Eksponensiell tetthetsfunksjon En viktig klasse av beslutningsproblemer under usikkerhet angår sjansen mellom hendelser. For eksempel vil sjansen for at tiden til neste nedbryting av en maskin som ikke overstiger en bestemt tid, for eksempel kopimaskinen på kontoret, ikke bryter i løpet av denne uken. Eksponensiell distribusjon gir fordeling av tid mellom uavhengige hendelser som opptrer med en konstant hastighet. Densitetsfunksjonen er: hvor l er det gjennomsnittlige antall hendelser per tidsenhet, som er et positivt tall. Gjennomsnittet og variansen av tilfeldig variabel t (tid mellom hendelser) er 1 l. og 1 l 2. henholdsvis. Applikasjoner inkluderer probabilistisk vurdering av tiden mellom ankomst av pasienter til sykehusets nødrom og ankomst av skip til en bestemt port. Kommentarer: Spesielt tilfelle av både Weibull og gamma distribusjoner. Du kan gjerne bruke eksponentiell applet til å utføre beregningene dine. Du kan gjerne bruke følgende Lilliefors-test for eksponentielt å utføre testen om godhetstest. Poisson-prosessen En viktig klasse av beslutningsprosesser under usikkerhet er preget av liten sjanse for forekomst av en bestemt hendelse, som for eksempel en ulykke. Gir sannsynlighet for nøyaktig x uavhengige hendelser i en gitt tidsperiode dersom hendelser foregår uavhengig og i konstant takt. Kan også representere antall forekomster over konstante områder eller volumer. Følgende uttalelser beskriver Poisson-prosessen. Hendelsene av hendelsene er uavhengige. Forekomsten av hendelser fra et sett av antagelser i et mellomrom av rom eller tid har ingen effekt på sannsynligheten for en annen forekomst av hendelsen i samme eller noe annet intervall. Teoretisk sett må et uendelig antall hendelser i hendelsen være mulig i intervallet. Sannsynligheten for den enkelte forekomsten av hendelsen i et gitt intervall er proporsjonal med lengden på intervallet. I en hvilken som helst uendelig liten del av intervallet er sannsynligheten for mer enn en forekomst av hendelsen ubetydelig. Poisson prosess brukes ofte, for eksempel i kvalitetskontroll, pålitelighet, forsikringskrav, innkommende antall telefonsamtaler og køeteori. En applikasjon: En av de mest nyttige applikasjonene i Poisson-prosessen er innenfor køeteknologiområdet. I mange situasjoner der det oppstår køer, har det blitt vist at antall personer som går med køen i en gitt tidsperiode, følger Poisson-modellen. For eksempel, hvis ankomster til en nødsituasjon er l per tidsenhet (si 1 time), så: P (n ankomster) l n e - l n Middel og varians av tilfeldig variabel n er begge l. Men hvis gjennomsnittet og variansen av en tilfeldig variabel som har like numeriske verdier, er det ikke nødvendig at dens fordeling er en Poisson. P (0 ankomst) e - l P (1 ankomst) l e - l 1 P (2 ankomst) l 2 e - l 2 og så videre. Generelt: P (n1 ankomster) l Pr (n ankomster) n. Du kan kanskje bruke Poisson Applet til å utføre beregningene dine. Godkjennelse for Poisson Erstatt de numeriske eksempeldataene med dine opptil 14 par Observerte verdier deres frekvenser. og klikk deretter på Calculate-knappen. Blank bokser er ikke inkludert i beregningene. Når du legger inn dataene dine for å flytte fra celle til celle i datamatrixen, bruker du Tab-tasten ikke pil eller tast inn taster. Uniform Density Function Application: Gir sannsynlighet for at observasjon vil oppstå innenfor et bestemt intervall når sannsynligheten for forekomst innenfor det intervallet er direkte proporsjonal med intervalllengden. Eksempel: Brukes til å generere tilfeldige tall i prøvetaking og Monte Carlo simulering. Kommentarer: Spesielt tilfelle av beta-distribusjon. Massefunksjonen til geometrisk gjennomsnitt av n uavhengige uniformer 0,1 er: P (X x) n x (n - 1) (Log1x n) (n -1) (n - 1). Z L U L - (1-U) L L antas å ha Tukeys symmetriske l-distribusjon. Du kan kanskje bruke Uniform Applet til å utføre beregningene dine. Noen nyttige SPSS-kommandoer For flere SPSS-programmer som er nyttige for simulering av inputoutput-analyse, besøk Data Analysis Routines. Tilfeldige tallgeneratorer Klassiske ensartede tilfeldige tallgivere har noen store feil, som for eksempel kort periodelengde og mangel på høyere dimensjonsuniformitet. Imidlertid er det i dag en klasse av ganske komplekse generatorer som er like effektive som de klassiske generatorer, mens de nyter eiendommen til en mye lengre periode og med en høyere dimensjonsuniformitet. Dataprogrammer som genererer tilfeldige tall, bruker en algoritme. Det betyr at hvis du vet algoritmen og frøverdiene kan du forutsi hvilke tall som vil oppstå. Fordi du kan forutsi tallene de ikke er virkelig tilfeldige - de er pseudorandom. For statistiske formål er gode pseudorandom tall generatorer gode nok. Den tilfeldige nummergeneratoren RANECU A FORTRAN-kode for en generator med ensartede tilfeldige tall på 0,1. RANECU er multiplikativ lineær kongruensiell generator som passer for en 16-bit plattform. Den kombinerer tre enkle generatorer, og har en periode på over 81012. Den er konstruert for mer effektiv bruk ved å sørge for en sekvens av slike tall, totalt LEN, som skal returneres i en samtale. Et sett med tre ikke-null heltallsfrø kan leveres, hvis det ikke brukes et standardsett. Hvis de leveres, bør disse tre frøene i rekkefølge ligge i henholdsvis 1,32362, 1,31726 og 1,31656. The Shuffling Rutine i Visual Basic Square Histogrammetoden Vi får et histogram, med vertikale stenger som har høyder proporsjonal med sannsynligheten som vi ønsker å produsere en verdi angitt av etiketten på basen. Et enkelt slikt histogram, som ligger flatt, kan være: Ideen er å kutte stolpene i stykker og deretter sette dem sammen i et firkantet histogram, alle høyder like, med hver endebøyle som har en nedre del, samt en øvre del som indikerer hvor den kom fra. En ensartet tilfeldig variabel U kan da brukes til å velge en av de endelige stengene og for å angi om den nederste eller øvre delen skal brukes. Det er mange måter å gjøre denne kutting og reassembling den enkleste ser ut til å være Robin Hood Algoritmen: Ta fra rikeste til å bringe de fattigste opp til gjennomsnittet. TRINN 1: Det opprinnelige (horisontale) histogrammet, gjennomsnittlig høyde 20: Ta 17 fra strip a for å bringe stripe e opp til gjennomsnittet. Ta opp donor og bruk gammelt dårlig nivå for å markere den nedre delen av ferdiggjøring: Ta deretter med til gjennomsnittet med giver b. Ta opp donor og bruk gammelt dårlig nivå for å markere den nedre delen av ferdiggjøring: Ta deretter opp til gjennomsnittet med giver c. Ta opp donor og bruk gammelt dårlig nivå for å markere den nedre delen av ferdiggjøring: Endelig bring b til gjennomsnittet med giver c. Ta opp donor og bruk gammelt dårlig nivå for å markere den nedre delen av ferden: Vi har nå et kvadratisk histogram, det vil si et rektangel med 4 striper med like område, hver stripe med to regioner. En ensartet variant U kan brukes til å generere a, b, c, d, e med de nødvendige sannsynligheter. 32. 27. 26. 12 .06. Oppsett: Lag tabeller, la j være heltalldelen av 15U, med U uniform i (0,1). Hvis U lt Tj return Vj, returner ellers VKj. I mange applikasjoner er ingen V-tabell nødvendig: Vii og generasjonsprosedyren blir Hvis U lt Tj return j, returner ellers Kj. Referanser Ytterligere lesninger: Aiello W. S. Rajagopalan, og R. Venkatesan, Design av praktiske og provably gode tilfeldige tallgivere, Journal of Algorithms. 29, 358-389, 1998. Dagpunar J. Prinsipper for tilfeldig variantgenerering. Clarendon, 1988. Fishman G. Monte Carlo. Springer, 1996. James, Fortran versjon av LEcuyer generator, Comput. Phys. Komm. . 60, 329-344, 1990. Knuth D. Art of Computer Programming, vol. 2. Addison-Wesley, 1998. LEcuyer P. Effektive og bærbare kombinert tilfeldige talgeneratorer, Comm. ACM, 31, 742-749, 774, 1988. LEcuyer P. Uniform tilfeldig talgenerasjon, Ann. Op. Res. 53, 77-120, 1994. Lecuyer P. Tilfeldig tallgenerasjon. I håndboken om simulering. J. Banks (ed.), Wiley, 1998. Maurer U. En universell statistisk test for tilfeldige bitgeneratorer, J. Cryptology. 5, 89-105, 1992. Sobol I. og Y. Levitan, En pseudo-tilfeldig tall generator for datamaskiner, Datamatematikk med applikasjoner. 37 (4), 33-40, 1999. Tsang W-W. En beslutningstreetalgoritme for kvadrering av histogrammet i tilfeldig talgenerering, Ars Combinatoria. 23A, 291-301, 1987 Test for tilfeldighet Vi må teste både tilfeldighet og enhetlighet. Tester kan klassifiseres i 2 kategorier: Empiriske eller statistiske tester, og teoretiske tester. Teoretiske tester omhandler egenskapene til generatoren som brukes til å skape realiseringen med ønsket distribusjon, og ikke se på generert antall i det hele tatt. For eksempel ville vi ikke bruke en generator med dårlige kvaliteter til å generere tilfeldige tall. Statistiske tester er basert utelukkende på de tilfeldige observasjoner som er produsert. Test for tilfeldighet: A. Test for uavhengighet: Plot x i realisering vs x i1. Hvis det er uavhengighet, vil grafen ikke vise noen særegne mønstre i det hele tatt, men vil være helt spredt. B. Kjører tester. (Oppstart, nedturer): Dette er en direkte test av uavhengighetsforutsetningen. Det er to teststatistikker å vurdere: en basert på en normal tilnærming og en annen ved hjelp av numeriske tilnærminger. Test basert på Normal tilnærming: Anta at du har N tilfeldige realisasjoner. La et være det totale antall løp i en sekvens. Hvis antall positive og negative løp er større enn si 20, er fordelingen av a rimelig tilnærmet ved en Normalfordeling med gjennomsnittlig (2N - 1) 3 og (16N - 29) 90. Avvis hypotesen om uavhengighet eller eksistens av løp hvis Zo gt Z (1-alfa2) hvor Zo er Z-poengsummen. C. Korrelasjonstester: Viser de tilfeldige tallene en uttalt korrelasjon. Beregne autokorrelasjonsfunksjonen. Frekvens - eller enhetlig fordelingstest: Bruk Kolmogorov-Smirimov-test for å avgjøre om realisasjonene følger en U (0,1) Referanser Ytterligere avlesninger: Headrick T. Rask femte-ordinære polynomialtransformer for å generere univariate og multivariate ikke-normale fordelinger, beregningsstatistikk og dataanalyse . 40 (4), 685-711, 2002. Karian Z. og E. Dudewicz, Moderne Statistiske Systemer og GPSS Simulering. CRC Press, 1998. Kleijnen J. og W. van Groenendaal, Simulering: Et Statistisk Perspektiv. Wiley, Chichester, 1992 Korn G. Ekte statistiske eksperimenter kan bruke simuleringspakkeprogramvare, simuleringsmodelleringsøvelse og teori. 13 (1), 39-54, 2005. Lewis P. og E. Orav, simuleringsmetodikk for statistikere, driftsanalytikere og ingeniører. Wadsworth Inc. 1989 Madu Ch. og Ch-H. Kuei, eksperimentell statistisk design og analyse i simuleringsmodellering. Greenwood Publishing Group, 1993. Pang K. Z. Yang, S. Hou, og P. Leung, Ujevn tilfeldig variasjonsgenerering ved vertikal stripmetode, European Journal of Operational Research. 142 (3), 595-609, 2002. Robert C. og G. Casella, Monte Carlo Statistiske Metoder. Springer, 1999. Modeling Simulering Simulering generelt er å late som om den ene handler om en ekte ting mens han virkelig jobber med en imitasjon. I operasjonsforskning er imitasjonen en datamodell av den simulerte virkeligheten. En flysimulator på en PC er også en datamodell av noen aspekter av flyet: den viser på kontrollpanelet og hva piloten (den unge som driver den) skal se fra cockpiten (lenestolen). Hvorfor bruke modeller Å fly en simulator er tryggere og billigere enn den virkelige flyet. Av nøyaktig grunn er modeller brukt i industrihandel og militær: det er svært kostbart, farlig og ofte umulig å lage eksperimenter med virkelige systemer. Forutsatt at modeller er tilstrekkelige beskrivelser av virkeligheten (de er gyldige), kan eksperimentere med dem spare penger, lidelse og til og med tid. Når skal du bruke simuleringer Systemer som forandrer seg med tiden, for eksempel en bensinstasjon hvor biler kommer og går (kalt dynamiske systemer) og involverer tilfeldighet. Ingen kan gjette nøyaktig hvilken tid neste bil skal komme til stasjonen, er gode kandidater for simulering. Modellering av komplekse dynamiske systemer har teoretisk behov for mange forenklinger, og de nye modellene er kanskje ikke gyldige. Simulering krever ikke at mange forenkler forutsetninger, noe som gjør det til det eneste verktøyet selv om det ikke er tilfeldighet. Hvordan simulere Anta at vi er interessert i en bensinstasjon. Vi kan beskrive dette systemets oppførsel grafisk ved å plotte antall biler i stasjonen systemets tilstand. Hver gang en bil ankommer, øker grafen med en enhet mens en avgående bil forårsaker at grafen slipper en enhet. Denne grafen (kalt prøvevei) kan fås fra observasjon av en ekte stasjon, men kan også være kunstig konstruert. Slike kunstige konstruksjoner og analysen av den resulterende prøveveien (eller flere prøvebaner i mer komplekse tilfeller) består av simuleringen. Typer simuleringer: Diskret hendelse. Ovennevnte prøvebane besto av bare horisontale og vertikale linjer, da bilangrep og avgang skjedde på forskjellige tidspunkter, det vi refererer til som hendelser. Mellom to påfølgende hendelser skjer ingenting - grafen er horisontal. Når antall hendelser er endelige, kaller vi simuleringsdiskret begivenhet. I enkelte systemer endres staten hele tiden, ikke bare på tidspunktet for enkelte diskrete hendelser. For eksempel kan vannet i et reservoar med gitt inn - og utganger endres hele tiden. I slike tilfeller er kontinuerlig simulering mer hensiktsmessig, selv om diskret hendelsesimulering kan tjene som en tilnærming. Videre vurdering av diskrete hendelsessimuleringer. Hvordan utføres simulering Simuleringer kan utføres manuelt. Ofte er systemmodellen imidlertid skrevet enten som et dataprogram (for eksempel, klikk her) eller som en slags innspilling i simulatorsoftware. Stat: En variabel som karakteriserer et attributt i systemet, for eksempel lagernivå i lager eller antall jobber som venter på behandling. Hendelse: En forekomst på et tidspunkt som kan endre systemets tilstand, for eksempel ankomst av en kunde eller arbeidets start på en jobb. Entitet: Et objekt som passerer gjennom systemet, for eksempel biler i skjæringspunkt eller ordre på en fabrikk. Ofte er en hendelse (for eksempel ankomst) forbundet med en enhet (for eksempel kunde). Kø: En kø er ikke bare en fysisk kø av mennesker, det kan også være en oppgaveliste, en buffer av ferdige varer som venter på transport eller et sted der enheter venter på at noe skal skje av en eller annen grunn. Opprette: Opprette forårsaker en ankomst av en ny enhet til systemet på et tidspunkt. Planlegging: Planlegging er en handling om å tildele en ny fremtidshendelse til en eksisterende enhet. Tilfeldig variabel: En tilfeldig variabel er en mengde som er usikker, for eksempel interarrival tid mellom to innkommende fly eller antall defekte deler i en forsendelse. Tilfeldig variant: En tilfeldig variant er en kunstig generert tilfeldig variabel. Distribusjon: En distribusjon er den matematiske loven som styrer de sannsynlige egenskapene til en tilfeldig variabel. Et enkelt eksempel: Bygg en simulerings bensinstasjon med en enkelt pumpe betjent av en enkelt servicemann. Anta at ankomst av biler også deres service ganger er tilfeldig. Først identifiser: statene: antall biler som venter på service og antall biler som serveres når som helst hendelser: ankomst av biler, servicestart, slutt på serviceenheter: disse er bilkøen: køen av biler foran pumpe, venter på service tilfeldige realisasjoner: interarrival ganger, service ganger fordelinger: vi skal påta eksponentielle fordelinger for både interarrival tid og service tid. Deretter angir du hva du skal gjøre ved hvert arrangement. Eksemplet ovenfor ville se slik ut: Ved ankomsten av enheten ankomst: Opprett neste ankomst. Hvis serveren er ledig, send enhet for start av tjenesten. Ellers går det inn i køen. Ved start av start: Server blir okkupert. Planlegg slutten av tjenesten for denne enheten. Ved avslutning av tjenesten: Server blir gratis. Hvis noen enheter venter i kø: Fjern første enhet fra køen, send den til start av tjenesten. Noen initiering er fortsatt nødvendig, for eksempel opprettelsen av den første ankomsten. Til slutt blir ovennevnte oversatt til kode. Dette er enkelt med et passende bibliotek som har underrutiner for opprettelse, planlegging, riktig timing av hendelser, kømanipulasjoner, tilfeldig variasjonsgenerering og statistikkinnsamling. Hvordan simulere I tillegg til det ovennevnte registrerer programmet antall biler i systemet før og etter hver endring, sammen med lengden på hvert arrangement. Development of Systems Simulation Discrete event systems (DES) are dynamic systems which evolve in time by the occurrence of events at possibly irregular time intervals. DES abound in real-world applications. Examples include traffic systems, flexible manufacturing systems, computer-communications systems, production lines, coherent lifetime systems, and flow networks. Most of these systems can be modeled in terms of discrete events whose occurrence causes the system to change from one state to another. In designing, analyzing and operating such complex systems, one is interested not only in performance evaluation but also in sensitivity analysis and optimization. A typical stochastic system has a large number of control parameters that can have a significant impact on the performance of the system. To establish a basic knowledge of the behavior of a system under variation of input parameter values and to estimate the relative importance of the input parameters, sensitivity analysis applies small changes to the nominal values of input parameters. For systems simulation, variations of the input parameter values cannot be made infinitely small. The sensitivity of the performance measure with respect to an input parameter is therefore defined as (partial) derivative. Sensitivity analysis is concerned with evaluating sensitivities (gradients, Hessian, etc.) of performance measures with respect to parameters of interest. It provides guidance for design and operational decisions and plays a pivotal role in identifying the most significant system parameters, as well as bottleneck subsystems. I have carried out research in the fields of sensitivity analysis and stochastic optimization of discrete event systems with an emphasis on computer simulation models. This part of lecture is dedicated to the estimation of an entire response surface of complex discrete event systems (DES) from a single sample path (simulation), such as the expected waiting time of a customer in a queuing network, with respect to the controllable parameters of the system, such as service rates, buffer sizes and routing probabilities. With the response surfaces at hand, we are able to perform sensitivity analysis and optimization of a DES from a single simulation, that is, to find the optimal parameters of the system and their sensitivities (derivatives), with respect to uncontrollable system parameters, such as arrival rates in a queuing network. We identified three distinct processes. Descriptive Analysis includes: Problem Identification Formulation, Data Collection and Analysis, Computer Simulation Model Development, Validation, Verification and Calibration, and finally Performance Evaluation. Prescriptive Analysis: Optimization or Goal Seeking. These are necessary components for Post-prescriptive Analysis: Sensitivity, and What-If Analysis. The prescriptive simulation attempts to use simulation to prescribe decisions required to obtain specified results. It is subdivided into two topics - Goal Seeking and Optimization. Recent developments on single-run algorithms for the needed sensitivities (i. e. gradient, Hessian, etc.) make the prescriptive simulation feasible. Click on the image to enlarge it and THEN print it. Problem Formulation: Identify controllable and uncontrollable inputs. Identify constraints on the decision variables. Define measure of system performance and an objective function. Develop a preliminary model structure to interrelate the inputs and the measure of performance. Click on the image to enlarge it and THEN print it. Data Collection and Analysis: Regardless of the method used to collect the data, the decision of how much to collect is a trade-off between cost and accuracy. Simulation Model Development: Acquiring sufficient understanding of the system to develop an appropriate conceptual, logical and then simulation model is one of the most difficult tasks in simulation analysis. Model Validation, Verification and Calibration: In general, verification focuses on the internal consistency of a model, while validation is concerned with the correspondence between the model and the reality. The term validation is applied to those processes which seek to determine whether or not a simulation is correct with respect to the real system. More prosaically, validation is concerned with the question Are we building the right system. Verification, on the other hand, seeks to answer the question Are we building the system right Verification checks that the implementation of the simulation model (program) corresponds to the model. Validation checks that the model corresponds to reality. Calibration checks that the data generated by the simulation matches real (observed) data. Validation: The process of comparing the models output with the behavior of the phenomenon. In other words: comparing model execution to reality (physical or otherwise) Verification: The process of comparing the computer code with the model to ensure that the code is a correct implementation of the model. Calibration: The process of parameter estimation for a model. Calibration is a tweakingtuning of existing parameters and usually does not involve the introduction of new ones, changing the model structure. In the context of optimization, calibration is an optimization procedure involved in system identification or during experimental design. Input and Output Analysis: Discrete-event simulation models typically have stochastic components that mimic the probabilistic nature of the system under consideration. Successful input modeling requires a close match between the input model and the true underlying probabilistic mechanism associated with the system. The input data analysis is to model an element (e. g. arrival process, service times) in a discrete-event simulation given a data set collected on the element of interest. This stage performs intensive error checking on the input data, including external, policy, random and deterministic variables. System simulation experiment is to learn about its behavior. Careful planning, or designing, of simulation experiments is generally a great help, saving time and effort by providing efficient ways to estimate the effects of changes in the models inputs on its outputs. Statistical experimental-design methods are mostly used in the context of simulation experiments. Performance Evaluation and What-If Analysis: The what-if analysis is at the very heart of simulation models. Sensitivity Estimation: Users must be provided with affordable techniques for sensitivity analysis if they are to understand which relationships are meaningful in complicated models. Optimization: Traditional optimization techniques require gradient estimation. As with sensitivity analysis, the current approach for optimization requires intensive simulation to construct an approximate surface response function. Incorporating gradient estimation techniques into convergent algorithms such as Robbins-Monroe type algorithms for optimization purposes, will be considered. Gradient Estimation Applications: There are a number of applications which measure sensitivity information, (i. e. the gradient, Hessian, etc.), Local information, Structural properties, Response surface generation, Goal-seeking problem, Optimization, What-if Problem, and Meta-modelling Report Generating: Report generation is a critical link in the communication process between the model and the end user. A Classification of Stochastic Processes A stochastic process is a probabilistic model of a system that evolves randomly in time and space. Formally, a stochastic process is a collection of random variables all defined on a common sample (probability) space. The X(t) is the state while (time) t is the index that is a member of set T. Examples are the delay of the ith customer and number of customers in the queue at time t in an MM1 queue. In the first example, we have a discrete - time, continuous state, while in the second example the state is discrete and time in continuous. The following table is a classification of various stochastic processes. The man made systems have mostly discrete state. Monte Carlo simulation deals with discrete time while in discrete even system simulation the time dimension is continuous, which is at the heart of this site. Change in the States of the System A Classification of Stochastic Processes Simulation Output Data and Stochastic Processes To perform statistical analysis of the simulation output we need to establish some conditions, e. g. output data must be a covariance stationary process (e. g. the data collected over n simulation runs). Stationary Process (strictly stationary): A stationary stochastic process is a stochastic process with the property that the joint distribution all vectors of h dimension remain the same for any fixed h. First Order Stationary: A stochastic process is a first order stationary if expected of X(t) remains the same for all t. For example in economic time series, a process is first order stationary when we remove any kinds of trend by some mechanisms such as differencing. Second Order Stationary: A stochastic process is a second order stationary if it is first order stationary and covariance between X(t) and X(s) is function of t-s only. Again, in economic time series, a process is second order stationary when we stabilize also its variance by some kind of transformations such as taking square root. Clearly, a stationary process is a second order stationary, however the reverse may not hold. In simulation output statistical analysis we are satisfied if the output is covariance stationary . Covariance Stationary: A covariance stationary process is a stochastic process having finite second moments, i. e. expected of X(t) 2 be finite. Clearly, any stationary process with finite second moment is covariance stationary. A stationary process may have no finite moment whatsoever. Since a Gaussian process needs a mean and covariance matrix only, it is stationary (strictly) if it is covariance stationary. Two Contrasting Stationary Process: Consider the following two extreme stochastic processes: - A sequence Y 0 . Y 1 . of independent identically distributed, random-value sequence is a stationary process, if its common distribution has a finite variance then the process is covariance stationary. - Let Z be a single random variable with known distribution function, and set Z 0 Z 1 . Z. Note that in a realization of this process, the first element, Z 0, may be random but after that there is no randomness. The process i . i 0, 1, 2. is stationary if Z has a finite variance. Output data in simulation fall between these two type of process. Simulation outputs are identical, and mildly correlated (how mild It depends on e. g. in a queueing system how large is the traffic intensity r ). An example could be the delay process of the customers in a queueing system. Techniques for the Steady State Simulation Unlike in queuing theory where steady state results for some models are easily obtainable, the steady state simulation is not an easy task. The opposite is true for obtaining results for the transient period (i. e. the warm-up period). Gather steady state simulation output requires statistical assurance that the simulation model reached the steady state. The main difficulty is to obtain independent simulation runs with exclusion of the transient period. The two technique commonly used for steady state simulation are the Method of Batch means, and the Independent Replication. None of these two methods is superior to the other in all cases. Their performance depend on the magnitude of the traffic intensity. The other available technique is the Regenerative Method, which is mostly used for its theoretical nice properties, however it is rarely applied in actual simulation for obtaining the steady state output numerical results. Suppose you have a regenerative simulation consisting of m cycles of size n 1 . n 2,n m . henholdsvis. The cycle sums is: The overall estimate is: Estimate S y i S n i . the sums are over i1, 2. m The 100(1- a 2) confidence interval using the Z-table (or T-table, for m less than, say 30), is: Estimate 177 Z. S (n. m ) n S n i m, the sum is over i1, 2. m and the variance is: S 2 S (y i - n i . Estimate) 2 (m-1), the sum is over i1, 2. m Method of Batch Means: This method involves only one very long simulation run which is suitably subdivided into an initial transient period and n batches. Each of the batch is then treated as an independent run of the simulation experiment while no observation are made during the transient period which is treated as warm-up interval. Choosing a large batch interval size would effectively lead to independent batches and hence, independent runs of the simulation, however since number of batches are few on cannot invoke the central limit theorem to construct the needed confidence interval. On the other hand, choosing a small batch interval size would effectively lead to significant correlation between successive batches therefore cannot apply the results in constructing an accurate confidence interval. Suppose you have n equal batches of m observations each. The means of each batch is: mean i S x ij m, the sum is over j1, 2. m The overall estimate is: Estimate S mean i n, the sum is over i1, 2. n The 100(1- a 2) confidence interval using the Z-table (or T-table, for n less than, say 30), is: Estimate 177 Z. S where the variance is: S 2 S (mean i - Estimate) 2 (n-1), the sum is over i1, 2. n Method of Independent Replications: This method is the most popularly used for systems with short transient period. This method requires independent runs of the simulation experiment different initial random seeds for the simulators random number generator. For each independent replications of the simulation run it transient period is removed. For the observed intervals after the transient period data is collected and processed for the point estimates of the performance measure and for its subsequent confidence interval. Suppose you have n replications with of m observations each. The means of each replication is: mean i S x ij m, the sum is over j1, 2. m The overall estimate is: Estimate S mean i n, the sum is over i1, 2. n The 100(1- a 2) confidence interval using the Z-table (or T-table, for n less than, say 30), is: Estimate 177 Z. S where the variance is: S 2 S (mean i - Estimate) 2 (n-1), the sum is over i1, 2. n Further Reading: Sherman M. and D. Goldsman, Large-sample normality of the batch-means variance estimator, Operations Research Letters . 30, 319-326, 2002. Whitt W. The efficiency of one long run versus independent replications in steady-state simulation, Management Science . 37(6), 645-666, 1991. Determination of the Warm-up Period To estimate the long-term performance measure of the system, there are several methods such as Batch Means, Independent Replications and Regenerative Method. Batch Means is a method of estimating the steady-state characteristic from a single-run simulation. The single run is partitioned into equal size batches large enough for estimates obtained from different batches to be approximately independent. In the method of Batch Means, it is important to ensure that the bias due to initial conditions is removed to achieve at least a covariance stationary waiting time process. An obvious remedy is to run the simulation for a period large enough to remove the effect of the initial bias. During this warm-up period, no attempt is made to record the output of the simulation. The results are thrown away. At the end of this warm-up period, the waiting time of customers are collected for analysis. The practical question is How long should the warm-up period be. Abate and Whitt provided a relatively simple and nice expression for the time required (t p ) for an MM1 queue system (with traffic intensity r ) starting at the origin (empty) to reach and remain within 100p of the steady - state limit as follows: C( r )2 r ( r 2 4 r ) 4. Some notions of t p ( r ) as a function of r and p, are given in following table: Time ( t p ) required for an MM1 queue to reach and remain with 100p limits of the steady-state value. Although this result is developed for MM1 queues, it has already been established that it can serve as an approximation for more general i. e. GIG1 queues. Further Reading: Abate J. and W. Whitt, Transient behavior of regular Brownian motion, Advance Applied Probability . 19, 560-631, 1987. Chen E. and W. Kelton, Determining simulation run length with the runs test, Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory . 11, 237-250, 2003. Determination of the Desirable Number of Simulation Runs The two widely used methods for experimentation on simulation models are method of bath means, and independent replications. Intuitively one may say the method of independent replication is superior in producing statistically a good estimate for the systems performance measure. In fact, not one method is superior in all cases and it all depends on the traffic intensity r. After deciding what method is more suitable to apply, the main question is determination of number of runs. That is, at the planning stage of a simulation investigation of the question of number of simulation runs (n) is critical. The confidence level of simulation output drawn from a set of simulation runs depends on the size of data set. The larger the number of runs, the higher is the associated confidence. However, more simulation runs also require more effort and resources for large systems. Thus, the main goal must be in finding the smallest number of simulation runs that will provide the desirable confidence. Pilot Studies: When the needed statistics for number of simulation runs calculation is not available from existing database, a pilot simulation is needed. For large pilot simulation runs (n), say over 30, the simplest number of runs determinate is: where d is the desirable margin of error (i. e. the absolute error), which is the half-length of the confidence interval with 100(1- a ) confidence interval. S 2 is the variance obtained from the pilot run. One may use the following sample size determinate for a desirable relative error D in , which requires an estimate of the coefficient of variation (C. V. in ) from a pilot run with n over 30: These sample size determinates could also be used for simulation output estimation of unimodal output populations, with discrete or continuous random variables provided the pilot run size (n) is larger than (say) 30. The aim of applying any one of the above number of runs determinates is at improving your pilot estimates at feasible costs. You may like using the following Applet for determination of number of runs. Further Reading: Daz-Emparanza I, Is a small Monte Carlo analysis a good analysis Checking the size power and consistency of a simulation-based test, Statistical Papers . 43(4), 567-577, 2002. Whitt W. The efficiency of one long run versus independent replications in steady-state simulation, Management Science . 37(6), 645-666, 1991. Determination of Simulation Runs Size At the planning stage of a simulation modeling the question of number of simulation runs (n) is critical. The following Java applets compute the needed Runs Size based on current avialable information ontained from a pilot simulation run, to achieve an acceptable accuracy andor risk. Enter the needed information, and then click the Calculate button. The aim of applying any one of the following number of simulation runs determinates is at improving your pilot estimates at a feasible cost. Notes: The normality condition might be relaxed for number of simulation runs over, say 30. Moreover, determination of number of simulation runs for mean could also be used for other unimodal simulation output distributions including those with discrete random variables, such as proportion, provided the pilot run is sufficiently large (say, over 30). Runs Size with Acceptable Absolute Precision Simulation Software Selection The vast amount of simulation software available can be overwhelming for the new users. The following are only a random sample of software in the market today: ACSL, APROS, ARTIFEX, Arena, AutoMod, CSIM, CSIM, Callim, FluidFlow, GPSS, Gepasi, JavSim, MJX, MedModel, Mesquite, Multiverse, NETWORK, OPNET Modeler, POSES, Simulat8, Powersim, QUEST, REAL, SHIFT, SIMPLE, SIMSCRIPT, SLAM, SMPL, SimBank, SimPlusPlus, TIERRA, Witness, SIMNON, VISSIM, and javasim. There are several things that make an ideal simulation package. Some are properties of the package, such as support, reactivity to bug notification, interface, etc. Some are properties of the user, such as their needs, their level of expertise, etc. For these reasons asking which package is best is a sudden failure of judgment. The first question to ask is for what purpose you need the software Is it for education, teaching, student-projects or research The main question is: What are the important aspects to look for in a package The answer depends on specific applications. However some general criteria are: Input facilities, Processing that allows some programming, Optimization capability, Output facilities, Environment including training and support services, Input-output statistical data analysis capability, and certainly the Cost factor. You must know which features are appropriate for your situation, although, this is not based on a Yes or No judgment. For description of available simulation software, visit Simulation Software Survey. Reference Further Reading: Nikoukaran J. Software selection for simulation in manufacturing: A review, Simulation Practice and Theory . 7(1), 1-14, 1999. Animation in Systems Simulation Animation in systems simulation is a useful tool. Most graphically based software packages have default animation. This is quite useful for model debugging, validation, and verification. This type of animation comes with little or no additional effort and gives the modeler additional insight into how the model. This type of animation comes with little or no additional effort and gives the modeler additional insight into how the model works. However, it augments the modeling tools available. The more realistic animation presents qualities which intend to be useful to the decision-maker in implementing the developed simulation model. There are also, good model management tools. Some tools have been developed which combined a database with simulation to store models, data, results, and animations. However, there is not one product that provides all of those capabilities. SIMSCRIPT II.5 Without computer one cannot perform any realistic dynamic systems simulation. SIMSCRIPT II.5 is a powerful, free-format, English-like simulation language designed to greatly simplify writing programs for simulation modelling. Programs written in SIMSCRIPT II.5 are easily read and maintained. They are accurate, efficient, and generate results which are acceptable to users. Unlike other simulation programming languages, SIMSCRIPT II.5 requires no coding in other languages. SIMSCRIPT II.5 has been fully supported for over 33 years. Contributing to the wide acceptance and success of SIMSCRIPT II.5 modelling are: A powerful worldview, consisting of Entities and Processes, provides a natural conceptual framework with which to relate real objects to the model. SIMSCRIPT II.5 is a modern, free-form language with structured programming constructs and all the built-in facilities needed for model development. Model components can be programmed so they clearly reflect the organization and logic of the modeled system. The amount of program needed to model a system is typically 75 less than its FORTRAN or C counterpart. A well designed package of program debug facilities is provided. The required tools are available to detect errors in a complex computer program without resorting an error. Simulation status information is provided, and control is optionally transferred to a user program for additional analysis and output. This structure allows the model to evolve easily and naturally from simple to detailed formulation as data becomes available. Many modifications, such as the choice of set disciplines and statistics are simply specified in the Preamble. You get a powerful, English-like language supporting a modular implementation. Because each model component is readable and self-contained, the model documentation is the model listing it is never obsolete or inaccurate. For more information contact SIMSCRIPT Guidelines for Running SIMSCRIPT on the VAX System System Dynamics and Discrete Event Simulation The modeling techniques used by system dynamics and discrete event simulations are often different at two levels: The modeler way of representing systems might be different, the underlying simulators algorithms are also different. Each technique is well tuned to the purpose it is intended. However, one may use a discrete event approach to do system dynamics and vice versa. Traditionally, the most important distinction is the purpose of the modeling. The discrete event approach is to find, e. g. how many resources the decision maker needs such as how many trucks, and how to arrange the resources to avoid bottlenecks, i. e. excessive of waiting lines, waiting times, or inventories. While the system dynamics approach is to prescribe for the decision making to, e. g. timely respond to any changes, and how to change the physical structure, e. g. physical shipping delay time, so that inventories, sales, production, etc. System dynamics is the rigorous study of problems in system behavior using the principles of feedback, dynamics and simulation. In more words system dynamics is characterized by: Searching for useful solutions to real problems, especially in social systems (businesses, schools, governments. ) and the environment. Using computer simulation models to understand and improve such systems. Basing the simulation models on mental models, qualitative knowledge and numerical information. Using methods and insights from feedback control engineering and other scientific disciplines to assess and improve the quality of models. Seeking improved ways to translate scientific results into achieved implemented improvement. Systems dynamics approach looks at systems at a very high level so is more suited to strategic analysis. Discrete event approach may look at subsystems for a detailed analysis and is more suited, e. g. to process re-engineering problems. Systems dynamics is indicative, i. e. helps us understand the direction and magnitude of effects (i. e. where in the system do we need to make the changes), whereas discrete event approach is predictive (i. e. how many resources do we need to achieve a certain goal of throughout). Systems dynamics analysis is continuous in time and it uses mostly deterministic analysis, whereas discrete event process deals with analysis in a specific time horizon and uses stochastic analysis. Some interesting and useful areas of system dynamics modeling approach are: Short-term and long term forecasting of agricultural produce with special reference to field crops and perennial fruits such as grapes, which have significant processing sectors of different proportions of total output where both demand and supply side perspectives are being considered. Long term relationship between the financial statements of balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statement balanced against scenarios of the stock markets need to seek a stablegrowing share price combined with a satisfactory dividend and related return on shareholder funds policy. Managerial applications include the development and evaluation of short-term and long-term strategic plans, budget analysis and assessment, business audits and benchmarking. A modeler must consider both as complementary tools to each other. Systems dynamic to look at the high level problem and identify areas which need more detailed analysis. Then, use discrete event modeling tools to analyze (and predict) the specific areas of interest. What Is Social Simulation Social scientists have always constructed models of social phenomena. Simulation is an important method for modeling social and economic processes. In particular, it provides a middle way between the richness of discursive theorizing and rigorous but restrictive mathematical models. There are different types of computer simulation and their application to social scientific problems. Faster hardware and improved software have made building complex simulations easier. Computer simulation methods can be effective for the development of theories as well as for prediction. For example, macro-economic models have been used to simulate future changes in the economy and simulations have been used in psychology to study cognitive mechanisms. The field of social simulation seems to be following an interesting line of inquiry. As a general approach in the field, a world is specified with much computational detail. Then the world is simulated (using computers) to reveal some of the non-trivial implications (or emergent properties) of the world. When these non trivial implications are made known (fed back) in world, apparently it constitutes some added values. Artificial Life is an interdisciplinary study enterprise aimed at understanding life-as-it-is and life-as-it-could-be, and at synthesizing life-like phenomena in chemical, electronic, software, and other artificial media. Artificial Life redefines the concepts of artificial and natural, blurring the borders between traditional disciplines and providing new media and new insights into the origin and principles of life. Simulation allows the social scientist to experiment with artificial societies and explore the implications of theories in ways not otherwise possible. Reference and Further Readings: Gilbert N. and K. Troitzsch, Simulation for the Social Scientist . Open University Press, Buckingham, UK, 1999. Sichman J. R. Conte, and N. Gilbert, (eds,), Multi-Agent Systems and Agent-Based Simulation . Berlin, Springer-Verlag, 1998. What Is Web-based Simulation Web-based simulation is quickly emerging as an area of significant interest for both simulation researchers and simulation practitioners. This interest in web-based simulation is a natural outgrowth of the proliferation of the World-Wide Web and its attendant technologies, e. g. HTML, HTTP, CGI, etc. Also the surging popularity of, and reliance upon, computer simulation as a problem solving and decision support systems tools. The appearance of the network-friendly programming language, Java, and of distributed object technologies like the Common Object Request Broker Architecture (CORBA) and the Object Linking and Embedding Component Object Model (OLECOM) have had particularly acute effects on the state of simulation practice. Currently, the researchers in the field of web-based simulation are interested in dealing with topics such as methodologies for web-based model development, collaborative model development over the Internet, Java-based modeling and simulation, distributed modeling and simulation using web technologies, and new applications. Parallel and Distributed Simulation The increasing size of the systems and designs requires more efficient simulation strategies to accelerate the simulation process. Parallel and distributed simulation approaches seem to be a promising approach in this direction. Current topics under extensive research are: Synchronization, scheduling, memory management, randomized and reactiveadaptive algorithms, partitioning and load balancing. Synchronization in multi-user distributed simulation, virtual reality environments, HLA, and interoperability. System modeling for parallel simulation, specification, re-use of modelscode, and parallelizing existing simulations. Language and implementation issues, models of parallel simulation, execution environments, and libraries. Theoretical and empirical studies, prediction and analysis, cost models, benchmarks, and comparative studies. Computer architectures, VLSI, telecommunication networks, manufacturing, dynamic systems, and biologicalsocial systems. Web based distributed simulation such as multimedia and real time applications, fault tolerance, implementation issues, use of Java, and CORBA. References Further Readings: Bossel H. Modeling Simulation . A. K. Peters Pub. 1994. Delaney W. and E. Vaccari, Dynamic Models and Discrete Event Simulation . Dekker, 1989. Fishman G. Discrete-Event Simulation: Modeling, Programming and Analysis . Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 2001. Fishwick P. Simulation Model Design and Execution: Building Digital Worlds . Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, 1995. Ghosh S. and T. Lee, Modeling Asynchronous Distributed Simulation: Analyzing Complex Systems . IEEE Publications, 2000. Gimblett R. Integrating Geographic Information Systems and Agent-Based Modeling: Techniques for Simulating Social and Ecological Processes . Oxford University Press, 2002. Harrington J. and K. Tumay, Simulation Modeling Methods: An Interactive Guide to Results-Based Decision . McGraw-Hill, 1998. Haas P. Stochastic Petri Net Models Modeling and Simulation . Springer Verlag, 2002. Hill D. Object-Oriented Analysis and Simulation Modeling . Addison-Wesley, 1996. Kouikoglou V. and Y. Phillis, Hybrid Simulation Models of Production Networks . Kluwer Pub. 2001. Law A. and W. Kelton, Simulation Modeling and Analysis . McGraw-Hill, 2000. Nelson B. Stochastic Modeling: Analysis Simulation . McGraw-Hill, 1995. Oakshott L., Business Modelling and Simulation . Pitman Publishing, London, 1997. Pidd M. Computer Simulation in Management Science . Wiley, 1998. Rubinstein R. and B. Melamed, Modern Simulation and Modeling . Wiley, 1998. Severance F. System Modeling and Simulation: An Introduction . Wiley, 2001. Van den Bosch, P. and A. Van der Klauw, Modeling, Identification Simulation of Dynamical Systems . CRC Press, 1994. Woods R. and K. Lawrence, Modeling and Simulation of Dynamic Systems . Prentice Hall, 1997. Techniques for Sensitivity Estimation Simulation continues to be the primary method by which engineers and managers obtain information about complex stochastic systems, such as telecommunication networks, health service, corporate planning, financial modeling, production assembly lines, and flexible manufacturing systems. These systems are driven by the occurrence of discrete events and complex interactions within these discrete events occur over time. For most discrete event systems (DES) no analytical methods are available, so DES must be studied via simulation. DES are studied to understand their performance, and to determine the best ways to improve their performance. In particular, one is often interested in how system performance depends on the systems parameter v, which could be a vector. DESs system performance is often measured as an expected value. Consider a system with continuous parameter v 206 V 205 R n . where V is an open set. Let be the steady state expected performance measure, where Y is a random vector with known probability density function (pdf), f(y v) depends on v, and Z is the performance measure. In discrete event systems, Monte Carlo simulation is usually needed to estimate J(v) for a given value v v 0 . By the law of large numbers converges to the true value, where y i . i 1, 2. n are independent, identically distributed, random vector realizations of Y from f (y v 0 ), and n is the number of independent replications. We are interested in sensitivities estimation of J(v) with respect to v. Applications of sensitivity information There are a number of areas where sensitivity information (the gradient, Hessian, etc.) of a performance measure J(v) or some estimate of it, is used for the purpose of analysis and control. In what follows, we single out a few such areas and briefly discuss them. Local information: An estimate for dJdv is a good local measure of the effect of on performance. For example, simply knowing the sign of the derivative dJdv at some point v immediately gives us the direction in which v should be changed. The magnitude of dJd also provides useful information in an initial design process: If dJdv is small, we conclude that J is not very sensitive to changes in. and hence focusing concentration on other parameters may improve performance. Structural properties: Often sensitivity analysis provides not only a numerical value for the sample derivative, but also an expression which captures the nature of the dependence of a performance measure on the parameter v. The simplest case arises when dJdv can be seen to be always positive (or always negative) for any sample path we may not be able to tell if the value of J(v) is monotonically increasing (or decreasing) in v. This information in itself is very useful in design and analysis. More generally, the form of dJdv can reveal interesting structural properties of the DES (e. g. monotonicity, convexity). Such properties must be exploited in order to determine optimal operating policies for some systems. Response surface generation: Often our ultimate goal is to obtain the function J(v), i. e. a curve describing how the system responds to different values of v. Since J(v) is unknown, one alternative is to obtain estimates of J(v) for as many values of v as possible. This is clearly a prohibitively difficult task. Derivative information, however may include not only first-order but also higher derivatives which can be used to approximate J(v). If such derivative information can be easily and accurately obtained, the task of response surface generation may be accomplished as well. Goal-seeking and What-if problems: Stochastic models typically depend upon various uncertain parameters that must be estimated from existing data sets. Statistical questions of how input parameter uncertainty propagates through the model into output parameter uncertainty is the so-called what-if analysis. A good answer to this question often requires sensitivity estimates. The ordinary simulation output results are the solution of a direct problem: Given the underlying pdf with a particular parameter value v. we may estimate the output function J(v). Now we pose the goal-seeking problem: given a target output value J 0 of the system and a parameterized pdf family, find an input value for the parameter, which generates such an output. There are strong motivations for both problems. When v is any controllable or uncontrollable parameter the decision maker is, for example, interested in estimating J(v) for a small change in v , the so called what-if problem, which is a direct problem and can be solved by incorporating sensitivity information in the Taylors expansion of J(v) in the neighborhood of v. However, when v is a controllable input, the decision maker may be interested in the goal-seeking problem: what change in the input parameter will achieve a desired change in output value J(v). Another application of goal-seeking arises when we want to adapt a model to satisfy a new equality constraint (condition) for some stochastic function. The solution to the goal-seeking problem is to estimate the derivative of the output function with respect to the input parameter for the nominal system use this estimate in a Taylors expansion of the output function in the neighborhood of the parameter and finally, use Robbins-Monro (R-M) type of stochastic approximation algorithm to estimate the necessary controllable input parameter value within the desired accuracy. Optimization: Discrete-event simulation is the primary analysis tool for designing complex systems. However, simulation must be linked with a mathematical optimization technique to be effectively used for systems design. The sensitivity dJdv can be used in conjunction with various optimization algorithms whose function is to gradually adjust v until a point is reached where J(v) is maximized (or minimized). If no other constraints on v are imposed, we expect dJdv 0 at this point. Click on the image to enlarge it and THEN print it. Finite difference approximation Kiefer and Wolfowitz proposed a finite difference approximation to the derivative. One version of the Kiefer-Wolfwitz technique uses two-sided finite differences. The first fact to notice about the K-W estimate is that it requires 2N simulation runs, where N is the dimension of vector parameter q. If the decision maker is interested in gradient estimation with respect to each of the components of q. then 2N simulations must be run for each component of v. This is inefficient. The second fact is that it may have a very poor variance, and it may result in numerical calculation difficulties. Simultaneous perturbation methods The simultaneous perturbation (SP) algorithm introduced by Dr. J. Spall has attracted considerable attention. There has recently been much interest in recursive optimization algorithms that rely on measurements of only the objective function to be optimized, not requiring direct measurements of the gradient of the objective function. Such algorithms have the advantage of not requiring detailed modeling information describing the relationship between the parameters to be optimized and the objective function. For example, many systems involving complex simulations or human beings are difficult to model, and could potentially benefit from such an optimization approach. The simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) algorithm operates in the same framework as the above K-W methods, but has the strong advantage of requiring a much lower number of simulation runs to obtain the same quality of result. The essential feature of SPSA, which accounts for its power and relative ease of use in difficult multivariate optimization problems--is the underlying gradient approximation that requires only TWO objective function measurements regardless of the dimension of the optimization problem (one variation of basic SPSA uses only ONE objective function measurement per iteration). The underlying theory for SPSA shows that the N-fold savings in simulation runs per iteration (per gradient approximation) translates directly into an N-fold savings in the number of simulations to achieve a given quality of solution to the optimization problem. In other words, the K-W method and SPSA method take the same number of iterations to converge to the answer despite the N-fold savings in objective function measurements (e. g. simulation runs) per iteration in SPSA. Perturbation analysis Perturbation analysis (PA) computes (roughly) what simulations would have produced, had v been changed by a small amount without actually making this change. The intuitive idea behind PA is that a sample path constructed using v is frequently structurally very similar to the sample path using the perturbed v. There is a large amount of information that is the same for both of them. It is wasteful to throw this information away and to start the simulation from scratch with the perturbed v. In PA, moreover, we can let the change approach zero to get a derivative estimator without numerical problems. We are interested in the affect of a parameter change on the performance measure. However, we would like to realize this change by keeping the order of events exactly the same. The perturbations will be so small that only the duration, not the order, of the states will be affected. This effect should be observed in three successive stages: Step 1: How does a change in the value of a parameter vary the sample duration related to that parameter Step 2: How does the change in an individual sample duration reflect itself as a change in a subsequent particular sample realization Step 3: Finally, what is the relationship between the variation of the sample realization and its expected value Score function methods Using the score function method, the gradient can be estimated simultaneously, at any number of different parameter values, in a single-run simulation. The basic idea is that, the gradient of the performance measure function, J( v ), is expressed as an expectation with respect to the same distribution as the performance measure function itself. Therefore, the sensitivity information can be obtained with little computational (not simulation) cost, while estimating the performance measure. It is well-known that the crude form of the SF estimator suffers from the problem of linear growth in its variance as the simulation run increases. However, in the steady-state simulation the variance can be controlled by run length. Furthermore, information about the variance may be incorporated into the simulation algorithm. A recent flurry of activity has attempted to improve the accuracy of the SF estimates. Under regenerative conditions, the estimator can easily be modified to alleviate this problem, yet the magnitude of the variance may be large for queueing systems with heavy traffic intensity. The heuristic idea is to treat each component of the system (e. g. each queue) separately, which synchronously assumes that individual components have local regenerative cycles. This approach is promising since the estimator remains unbiased and efficient while the global regenerative cycle is very long. Now we look at the general (non-regenerative) case. In this case any simulation will give a biased estimator of the gradient, as simulations are necessarily finite. If n (the length of the simulation) is large enough, this bias is negligible. However, as noted earlier, the variance of the SF sensitivity estimator increases with increase in n so, a crude SF estimator is not even approximately consistent. There are a number of ways to attack this problem. Most of the variations in an estimator comes from the score function. The variation is especially high, when all past inputs contribute to the performance and the scores from all are included. When one uses batch means, the variation is reduced by keeping the length of the batch small. A second way is to reduce the variance of the score to such an extent that we can use simulations long enough to effectively eliminate the bias. This is the most promising approach. The variance may be reduced further by using the standard variance reduction techniques (VRT), such as importance sampling. Finally, we can simply use a large number of iid replications of the simulation. Harmonic analysis Another strategy for estimating the gradient simulation is based on the frequency domain method, which differs from the time domain experiments in that the input parameters are deterministically varied in sinusoidal patterns during the simulation run, as opposed to being kept fixed as in the time domain runs. The range of possible values for each input factor should be identified. Then the values of each input factor within its defined range should be changed during a run. In time series analysis, t is the time index. In simulation, however, t is not necessarily the simulation clock time. Rather, t is a variable of the model, which keeps track of certain statistics during each run. For example, to generate the inter-arrival times in a queueing simulation, t might be the variable that counts customer arrivals. Frequency domain simulation experiments identify the significant terms of the polynomial that approximates the relationship between the simulation output and the inputs. Clearly, the number of simulation runs required to identify the important terms by this approach is much smaller than those of the competing alternatives, and the difference becomes even more conspicuous as the number of parameters increases. Conclusions Further Readings PA and SF (or LR) can be unified. Further comparison of the PA and SF approaches reveals several interesting differences. Both approaches require an interchange of expectation and differentiation. However, the conditions for this interchange in PA depend heavily on the nature of the problem, and must be verified for each application, which is not the case in SF. Therefore, in general, it is easier to satisfy SF unbiased conditions. PA assumes that the order of events in the perturbed path is the same as the order in the nominal path, for a small enough change in v. allowing the computation of the sensitivity of the sample performance for a particular simulation. For example, if the performance measure is the mean number of customer in a busy period, the PA estimate of the gradient with respect to any parameter is zero The number of customers per busy period will not change if the order of events does not change. In terms of ease of implementation, PA estimators may require considerable analytical work on the part of algorithm developer, with some customization for each application, whereas SF has the advantage of remaining a general definable algorithm whenever it can be applied. Perhaps the most important criterion for comparison lies in the question of accuracy of an estimator, typically measured through its variance. If an estimator is strongly consistent, its variance is gradually reduced over time and ultimately approaches to zero. The speed with which this happens may be extremely important. Since in practice, decisions normally have to be made in a limited time, an estimator whose variance decreases fast is highly desirable. In general, when PA does provide unbiased estimators, the variance of these estimators is small. PA fully exploits the structure of DES and their state dynamics by extracting the needed information from the observed sample path, whereas SF requires no knowledge of the system other than the inputs and the outputs. Therefore when using SF methods, variance reduction is necessary. The question is whether or not the variance can be reduced enough to make the SF estimator useful in all situations to which it can be applied. The answer is certainly yes. Using the standard variance reduction techniques can help, but the most dramatic variance reduction occurs using new methods of VR such as conditioning, which is shown numerically to have a mean squared error that is essentially the same as that of PA. References Further Readings: Arsham H. Algorithms for Sensitivity Information in Discrete-Event Systems Simulation, Simulation Practice and Theory . 6(1), 1-22, 1998. Fu M. and J-Q. Hu, Conditional Monte Carlo: Gradient Estimation and Optimization Applications . Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1997. Rubinstein R. and A. Shapiro, Discrete Event Systems: Sensitivity Analysis and Stochastic Optimization by the Score Function Method . John Wiley Sons, 1993. Whitt W. Minimizing delays in the GIG1 queue, Operations Research . 32(1), 41-51, 1984. Simulation-based Optimization Techniques Discrete event simulation is the primary analysis tool for designing complex systems. Simulation, however, must be linked with a optimization techniques to be effectively used for systems design. We present several optimization techniques involving both continuous and discrete controllable input parameters subject to a variety of constraints. The aim is to determine the techniques most promising for a given simulation model. Many man-made systems can be modeled as Discrete Event Systems (DES) examples are computer systems, communication networks, flexible manufacturing systems, production assembly lines, and traffic transportation systems. DES evolve with the occurrence of discrete events, such as the arrival of a job or the completion of a task, in contrast with continuously variable dynamic processes such as aerospace vehicles, which are primarily governed by differential equations. Owing to the complex dynamics resulting from stochastic interactions of such discrete events over time, the performance analysis and optimization of DES can be difficult tasks. At the same time, since such systems are becoming more widespread as a result of modern technological advances, it is important to have tools for analyzing and optimizing the parameters of these systems. Analyzing complex DES often requires computer simulation. In these systems, the objective function may not be expressible as an explicit function of the input parameters rather, it involves some performance measures of the system whose values can be found only by running the simulation model or by observing the actual system. On the other hand, due to the increasingly large size and inherent complexity of most man-made systems, purely analytical means are often insufficient for optimization. In these cases, one must resort to simulation, with its chief advantage being its generality, and its primary disadvantage being its cost in terms of time and money. Even though, in principle, some systems are analytically tractable, the analytical effort required to evaluate the solution may be so formidable that computer simulation becomes attractive. While the price for computing resources continue to dramatically decrease, one nevertheless can still obtain only a statistical estimate as opposed to an exact solution. For practical purposes, this is quite sufficient. These man-made DES are costly, and therefore it is important to operate them as efficiently as possible. The high cost makes it necessary to find more efficient means of conducting simulation and optimizing its output. We consider optimizing an objective function with respect to a set of continuous andor discrete controllable parameters subject to some constraints. Click on the image to enlarge it and THEN print it. The above figure illustrates the feedback loop application. Although the feedback concept is not a simulation but a systemic concept, however, whatever paradigm we use one can always incorporate feedback. For example, consider a discrete event system (DES) model that employs resources to achieve certain tasksprocesses, by only incorporating decision rules regarding how to manage the stocks and thence how the resource will be deployed depending on the stock level, clearly, in the system structure there are feedback loops. Usually when modelers choose a DES approach they often model the system as open loop or nearly open loop system, making the system behave as if there where no superior agent controlling the whole productionservice process. Closing the loops should be an elemental task that simulation modeler should take care of, even if the scope does not involve doing it, there must be awareness of system behavior, particularly if there is known to be that the system if under human decision making processesactivities. In almost all simulation models, an expected value can express the systems performance. Consider a system with continuous parameter v 206 V, where V is the feasible region. Let be the steady state expected performance measure, where Y is a random vector with known probability density function (pdf), f(y v) depends on v, and Z is the performance measure. In discrete event systems, Monte Carlo simulation is usually needed to estimate J(v) for a given value v v 0 . By the law of large numbers converges to the true value, where y i . i 1, 2. n are independent, identically distributed, random vector realizations of Y from f (y v 0 ), and n is the number of independent replications. The aim is to optimize J(v) with respect to v. We shall group the optimization techniques for simulation into seven broad categories namely, Deterministic Search, Pattern Search, Probabilistic Search, Evolutionary Techniques, Stochastic Approximation, Gradient Surface, and some Mixtures of the these techniques Click on the image to enlarge it and THEN print it. Deterministic search techniques A common characteristic of deterministic search techniques is that they are basically borrowed from deterministic optimization techniques. The deterministic objective function value required in the technique is now replaced with an estimate obtained from simulation. By having a reasonably accurate estimate, one hopes that the technique will perform well. Deterministic search techniques include heuristic search, complete enumeration, and random search techniques. Heuristic search technique The heuristic search technique is probably most commonly used in optimizing response surfaces. It is also the least sophisticated scheme mathematically, and it can be thought of as an intuitive and experimental approach. The analyst determines the starting point and stopping rule based on previous experience with the system. After setting the input parameters (factors) to levels that appear reasonable, the analyst makes a simulation run with the factors set at those levels and computes the value of the response function. If it appears to be a maximum (minimum) to the analyst, the experiment is stopped. Otherwise the analyst changes parameter settings and makes another run. This process continues until the analyst believes that the output has been optimized. Suffice it to say that, if the analyst is not intimately familiar with the process being simulated, this procedure can turn into a blind search and can expend an inordinate amount of time and computer resources without producing results commensurate with input. The heuristic search can be ineffective and inefficient in the hand of a novice. Complete enumeration and random techniques The complete enumeration technique is not applicable to continuous cases, but in discrete space v it does yield the optimal value of the response variable. All factors ( v ) must assume a finite number of values for this technique to be applicable. Then, a complete factorial experiment is run. The analyst can attribute some degree of confidence to the determined optimal point when using this procedure. Although the complete enumeration technique yields the optimal point, it has a serious drawback. If the number of factors or levels per factor is large, the number of simulation runs required to find the optimal point can be exceedingly large. For example, suppose that an experiment is conducted with three factors having three, four, and five levels, respectively. Also suppose that five replications are desired to provide the proper degree of confidence. Then 300 runs of the simulator are required to find the optimal point. Hence, this technique should be used only when the number of unique treatment combinations is relatively small or a run takes little time. The random search technique resembles the complete enumeration technique except that one selects a set of inputs at random. The simulated results based on the set that yields the maximum (minimum) value of the response function is taken to be the optimal point. This procedure reduces the number of simulation runs required to yield an optimal result however, there is no guarantee that the point found is actually the optimal point. Of course, the more points selected, the more likely the analyst is to achieve the true optimum. Note that the requirement that each factor assumes only a finite number of values is not a requirement in this scheme. Replications can be made on the treatment combinations selected, to increase the confidence in the optimal point. Which strategy is better, replicating a few points or looking at a single observation on more points, depends on the problem. Response surface search Response surface search attempts to fit a polynomial to J(v). If the design space v is suitably small, the performance function J(v) may be approximated by a response surface, typically a first order, or perhaps quadratic order in v. possibly after transformation, e. g. log ( v ). The response surface method (RSM) requires running the simulation in a first order experimental design to determine the path of steepest descent. Simulation runs made along this path continue, until one notes no improvement in J(v). The analyst then runs a new first order experimental design around the new optimal point reached, and finds a new path of steepest descent. The process continues, until there is a lack of fit in the fitted first order surface. Then, one runs a second order design, and takes the optimum of the fittest second order surface as the estimated optimum. Although it is desirable for search procedures to be efficient over a wide range of response surfaces, no current procedure can effectively overcome non-unimodality (surfaces having more than one local maximum or minimum). An obvious way to find the global optimal would be to evaluate all the local optima. One technique that is used when non-unimodality is known to exist, is called the Las Vegas technique. This search procedure estimates the distribution of the local optima by plotting the estimated J( v ) for each local search against its corresponding search number. Those local searches that produce a response greater than any previous response are then identified and a curve is fitted to the data. This curve is then used to project the estimated incremental response that will be achieved by one more search. The search continues until the value of the estimated improvement in the search is less than the cost of completing one additional search. It should be noted that a well-designed experiment requires a sufficient number of replications so that the average response can be treated as a deterministic number for search comparisons. Otherwise, since replications are expensive, it becomes necessary to effectively utilize the number of simulation runs. Although each simulation is at a different setting of the controllable variables, one can use smoothing techniques such as exponential smoothing to reduce the required number of replications. Pattern search techniques Pattern search techniques assume that any successful set of moves used in searching for an approximated optimum is worth repeating. These techniques start with small steps then, if these are successful, the step size increases. Alternatively, when a sequence of steps fails to improve the objective function, this indicates that shorter steps are appropriate so we may not overlook any promising direction. These techniques start by initially selecting a set of incremental values for each factor. Starting at an initial base point, they check if any incremental changes in the first variable yield an improvement. The resulting improved setting becomes the new intermediate base point. One repeats the process for each of the inputs until one obtains a new setting where the intermediate base points act as the initial base point for the first variable. The technique then moves to the new setting. This procedure is repeated, until further changes cannot be made with the given incremental values. Then, the incremental values are decreased, and the procedure is repeated from the beginning. When the incremental values reach a pre-specified tolerance, the procedure terminates the most recent factor settings are reported as the solution. Conjugate direction search The conjugate direction search requires no derivative estimation, yet it finds the optimum of an N-dimensional quadratic surface after, at most, N-iterations, where the number of iterations is equal to the dimension of the quadratic surface. The procedure redefines the n dimensions so that a single variable search can be used successively. Single variable procedures can be used whenever dimensions can be treated independently. The optimization along each dimension leads to the optimization of the entire surface. Two directions are defined to be conjugate whenever the cross-product terms are all zero. The conjugate direction technique tries to find a set of n dimensions that describes the surface such that each direction is conjugate to all others. Using the above result, the technique attempts to find two search optima and replace the n th dimension of the quadratic surface by the direction specified by the two optimal points. Successively replacing the original dimension yields a new set of n dimensions in which, if the original surface is quadratic, all directions are conjugate to each other and appropriate for n single variable searches. While this search procedure appears to be very simple, we should point out that the selection of appropriate step sizes is most critical. The step size selection is more critical for this search technique because - during axis rotation - the step size does not remain invariant in all dimensions. As the rotation takes place, the best step size changes, and becomes difficult to estimate. Steepest ascent (descent) The steepest ascent (descent) technique uses a fundamental result from calculus ( that the gradient points in the direction of the maximum increase of a function), to determine how the initial settings of the parameters should be changed to yield an optimal value of the response variable. The direction of movement is made proportional to the estimated sensitivity of the performance of each variable. Although quadratic functions are sometimes used, one assumes that performance is linearly related to the change in the controllable variables for small changes. Assume that a good approximation is a linear form. The basis of the linear steepest ascent is that each controllable variable is changed in proportion to the magnitude of its slope. When each controllable variable is changed by a small amount, it is analogous to determining the gradient at a point. For a surface containing N controllable variables, this requires N points around the point of interest. When the problem is not an n-dimensional elliptical surface, the parallel-tangent points are extracted from bitangents and inflection points of occluding contours. Parallel tangent points are points on the occluding contour where the tangent is parallel to a given bitangent or the tangent at an inflection point. Tabu search technique An effective technique to overcome local optimality for discrete optimization is the Tabu Search technique. It explores the search space by moving from a solution to its best neighbor, even if this results in a deterioration of the performance measure value. This approach increases the likelihood of moving out of local optima. To avoid cycling, solutions that were recently examined are declared tabu (Taboo) for a certain number of iterations. Applying intensification procedures can accentuate the search in a promising region of the solution space. In contrast, diversification can be used to broaden the search to a less explored region. Much remains to be discovered about the range of problems for which the tabu search is best suited. Hooke and Jeeves type techniques The Hooke and Jeeves pattern search uses two kinds of moves namely, an exploratory and a pattern move. The exploratory move is accomplished by doing a coordinate search in one pass through all the variables. This gives a new base point from which a pattern move is made. A pattern move is a jump in the pattern direction determined by subtracting the current base point from the previous base point. After the pattern move, another exploratory move is carried out at the point reached. If the estimate of J(v) is improved at the final point after the second exploratory move, it becomes the new base point. If it fails to show improvement, an exploratory move is carried out at the last base point with a smaller step in the coordinate search. The process stops when the step gets small enough. Simplex-based techniques The simplex-based technique performs simulation runs first at the vertices of the initial simplex i. e. a polyhedron in the v - space having N1 vertices. A subsequent simplex (moving towards the optimum) are formed by three operations performed on the current simplex: reflection, contraction, and expansion. At each stage of the search process, the point with the highest J(v) is replaced with a new point foundvia reflection through the centroid of the simplex. Depending on the value of J(v) at this new point, the simplex is either expanded, contracted, or unchanged. The simplex technique starts with a set of N1 factor settings. These N1 points are all the same distance from the current point. Moreover, the distance between any two points of these N1 points is the same. Then, by comparing their response values, the technique eliminates the factor setting with the worst functional value and replaces it with a new factor setting, determined by the centroid of the N remaining factor settings and the eliminated factor setting. The resulting simplex either grows or shrinks, depending on the response value at the new factor settings. One repeats the procedure until no more improvement can be made by eliminating a point, and the resulting final simplex is small. While this technique will generally performance well for unconstrained problems, it may collapse to a point on a boundary of a feasible region, thereby causing the search to come to a premature halt. This technique is effective if the response surface is generally bowl - shaped even with some local optimal points. Probabilistic search techniques All probabilistic search techniques select trial points governed by a scan distribution, which is the main source of randomness. These search techniques include random search, pure adaptive techniques, simulated annealing, and genetic methods. Random search A simple, but very popular approach is the random search, which centers a symmetric probability density function (pdf) e. g. the normal distribution, about the current best location. The standard normal N(0, 1) is a popular choice, although the uniform distribution U-1, 1 is also common. A variation of the random search technique determines the maximum of the objective function by analyzing the distribution of J(v) in the bounded sub-region. In this variation, the random data are fitted to an asymptotic extreme-value distribution, and J is estimated with a confidence statement. Unfortunately, these techniques cannot determine the location of J. which can be as important as the J value itself. Some techniques calculate the mean value and the standard deviation of J(v) from the random data as they are collected. Assuming that J is distributed normally in the feasible region. the first trial, that yields a J-value two standard deviations within the mean value, is taken as a near-optimum solution. Pure adaptive search Various pure adaptive search techniques have been suggested for optimization in simulation. Essentially, these techniques move from the current solution to the next solution that is sampled uniformly from the set of all better feasible solutions. Evolutionary Techniques Nature is a robust optimizer. By analyzing natures optimization mechanism we may find acceptable solution techniques to intractable problems. Two concepts that have most promise are simulated annealing and the genetic techniques. Simulated annealing Simulated annealing (SA) borrows its basic ideas from statistical mechanics. A metal cools, and the electrons align themselves in an optimal pattern for the transfer of energy. In general, a slowly cooling system, left to itself, eventually finds the arrangement of atoms, which has the lowest energy. The is the behavior, which motivates the method of optimization by SA. In SA we construct a model of a system and slowly decrease the temperature of this theoretical system, until the system assumes a minimal energy structure. The problem is how to map our particular problem to such an optimizing scheme. SA as an optimization technique was first introduced to solve problems in discrete optimization, mainly combinatorial optimization. Subsequently, this technique has been successfully applied to solve optimization problems over the space of continuous decision variables. SA is a simulation optimization technique that allows random ascent moves in order to escape the local minima, but a price is paid in terms of a large increase in the computational time required. It can be proven that the technique will find an approximated optimum. The annealing schedule might require a long time to reach a true optimum. Genetic techniques Genetic techniques (GT) are optimizers that use the ideas of evolution to optimize a system that is too difficult for traditional optimization techniques. Organisms are known to optimize themselves to adapt to their environment. GT differ from traditional optimization procedures in that GT work with a coding of the decision parameter set, not the parameters themselves GT search a population of points, not a single point GT use objective function information, not derivatives or other auxiliary knowledge and finally, GT use probabilistic transition rules, not deterministic rules. GT are probabilistic search optimizing techniques that do not require mathematical knowledge of the response surface of the system, which they are optimizing. They borrow the paradigms of genetic evolution, specifically selection, crossover, and mutation. Selection: The current points in the space are ranked in terms of their fitness by their respective response values. A probability is assigned to each point that is proportional to its fitness, and parents (a mating pair) are randomly selected. Crossover: The new point, or offspring, is chosen, based on some combination of the genetics of the two parents. Mutation: The location of offspring is also susceptible to mutation, a process, which occurs with probability p, by which a offspring is replaced randomly by a new offspring location. A generalized GT generates p new offspring at once and kills off all of the parents. This modification is important in the simulation environment. GT are well suited for qualitative or policy decision optimization such as selecting the best queuing disciplines or network topologies. They can be used to help determine the design of the system and its operation. For applications of GT to inventory systems, job-shop, and computer time-sharing problems. GT do not have certain shortcomings of other optimization techniques, and they will usually result in better calculated optima than those found with the traditionally techniques. They can search a response surface with many local optima and find (with a high probability) the approximate global optimum. One may use GT to find an area of potential interest, and then resort to other techniques to find the optimum. Recently, several classical GT principles have been challenged. Differential Evolution. Differential Evolution (DE) is a genetic type of algorithm for solving continuous stochastic function optimization. The basic idea is to use vector differences for perturbing the vector population. DE adds the weighted difference between two population vectors to a third vector. This way, no separate probability distribution has to be used, which makes the scheme completely self-organizing. A short comparison When performing search techniques in general, and simulated annealing or genetic techniques specifically, the question of how to generate the initial solution arises. Should it be based on a heuristic rule or on a randomly generated one Theoretically, it should not matter, but in practice this may depend on the problem. In some cases, a pure random solution systematically produces better final results. On the other hand, a good initial solution may lead to lower overall run times. This can be important, for example, in cases where each iteration takes a relatively long time therefore, one has to use some clever termination rule. Simulation time is a crucial bottleneck in an optimization process. In many cases, a simulation is run several times with different initial solutions. Such a technique is most robust, but it requires the maximum number of replications compared with all other techniques. The pattern search technique applied to small problems with no constraints or qualitative input parameters requires fewer replications than the GT. GT, however, can easily handle constraints, and have lower computational complexity. Finally, simulated annealing can be embedded within the Tabu search to construct a probabilistic technique for global optimization. References Further Readings: Choi D.-H. Cooperative mutation based evolutionary programming for continuous function optimization, Operations Research Letters . 30, 195-201, 2002. Reeves C. and J. Rowe, Genetic Algorithms: Principles and Perspectives . Kluwer, 2002. Saviotti P. (Ed.), Applied Evolutionary Economics: New Empirical Methods and Simulation Techniques . Edward Elgar Pub. 2002. Wilson W. Simulating Ecological and Evolutionary Systems in C . Cambridge University Press, 2000. Stochastic approximation techniques Two related stochastic approximation techniques have been proposed, one by Robbins and Monro and one by Kiefer and Wolfowitz. The first technique was not useful for optimization until an unbiased estimator for the gradient was found. Kiefer and Wolfowitz developed a procedure for optimization using finite differences. Both techniques are useful in the optimization of noisy functions, but they did not receive much attention in the simulation field until recently. Generalization and refinement of stochastic approximation procedures give rise to a weighted average, and stochastic quasi-gradient methods. These deal with constraints, non-differentiable functions, and some classes of non-convex functions, among other things. Kiefer-Wolfowitz type techniques Kiefer and Wolfowitz proposed a finite difference approximation to the derivative. One version of the Kiefer-Wolfwitz technique uses two-sided finite differences. The first fact to notice about the K-W estimate is that it requires 2N simulation runs, where N is the dimension of vector parameter v. If the decision maker is interested in gradient estimation with respect to each of the components of v. then 2N simulations must be run for each component of v. This is inefficient. The second fact is that it may have a very poor variance, and it may result in numerical calculation difficulties. Robbins-Monro type techniques The original Robbins-Monro (R-M) technique is not an optimization scheme, but rather a root finding procedure for functions whose exact values are not known but are observed with noise. Its application to optimization is immediate: use the procedure to find the root of the gradient of the objective function. Interest was renewed in the R-M technique as a means of optimization, with the development of the perturbation analysis, score function (known also as likelihood ratio method), and frequency domain estimates of derivatives. Optimization for simulated systems based on the R-M technique is known as a single-run technique. These procedures optimize a simulation model in a single run simulation with a run length comparable to that required for a single iteration step in the other methods. This is achieved essentially be observing the sample values of the objective function and, based on these observations, updating the values of the controllable parameters while the simulation is running, that is, without restarting the simulation. This observing-updating sequence is done repeatedly, leading to an estimate of the optimum at the end of a single-run simulation. Besides having the potential of large computational savings, this technique can be a powerful tool in real-time optimization and control, where observations are taken as the system is evolving in time. Gradient surface method One may combine the gradient-based techniques with the response surface methods (RSM) for optimization purposes. One constructs a response surface with the aid of n response points and the components of their gradients. The gradient surface method (GSM) combines the virtue of RSM with that of the single - run, gradient estimation techniques such as Perturbation Analysis, and Score Function techniques. A single simulation experiment with little extra work yields N 1 pieces of information i. e. one response point and N components of the gradient. This is in contrast to crude simulation, where only one piece of information, the response value, is obtained per experiment. Thus by taking advantage of the computational efficiency of single-run gradient estimators. In general, N-fold fewer experiments will be needed to fit a global surface compared to the RSM. At each step, instead of using Robbins-Monro techniques to locate the next point locally, we determine a candidate for the next point globally, based on the current global fit to the performance surface. The GSM approach has the following advantages The technique can quickly get to the vicinity of the optimal solution because its orientation is global 23, 39. Thus, it produces satisfying solutions quickly Like RSM, it uses all accumulated information And, in addition, it uses gradient surface fitting, rather than direct performance response-surface fitting via single-run gradient estimators. This significantly reduces the computational efforts compared with RSM. Similar to RSM, GSM is less sensitive to estimation error and local optimality And, finally, it is an on-line technique, the technique may be implemented while the system is running. A typical optimization scheme involves two phases: a Search Phase and an Iteration Phase. Most results in analytic computational complexity assume that good initial approximations are available, and deal with the iteration phase only. If enough time is spent in the initial search phase, we can reduce the time needed in the iteration phase. The literature contains papers giving conditions for the convergence of a process a process has to be more than convergent in order to be computationally interesting. It is essential that we be able to limit the cost of computation. In this sense, GSM can be thought of as helping the search phase and as an aid to limit the cost of computation. One can adopt standard or simple devices for issues such as stopping rules. For on-line optimization, one may use a new design in GSM called single direction design. Since for on-line optimization it may not be advisable or feasible to disturb the system, random design usually is not suitable. Post-solution analysis Stochastic models typically depend upon various uncertain and uncontrollable input parameters that must be estimated from existing data sets. We focus on the statistical question of how input-parameter uncertainty propagates through the model into output - parameter uncertainty. The sequential stages are descriptive, prescriptive and post-prescriptive analysis. Rare Event Simulation Large deviations can be used to estimate the probability of rare events, such as buffer overflow, in queueing networks. It is simple enough to be applied to very general traffic models, and sophisticated enough to give insight into complex behavior. Simulation has numerous advantages over other approaches to performance and dependability evaluation most notably, its modelling power and flexibility. For some models, however, a potential problem is the excessive simulation effort (time) required to achieve the desired accuracy. In particular, simulation of models involving rare events, such as those used for the evaluation of communications and highly-dependable systems, is often not feasible using standard techniques. In recent years, there have been significant theoretical and practical advances towards the development of efficient simulation techniques for the evaluation of these systems. Methodologies include: Techniques based on importance sampling, The restart method, and Hybrid analyticsimulation techniques among newly devised approaches. Conclusions Further Readings With the growing incidence of computer modeling and simulation, the scope of simulation domain must be extended to include much more than traditional optimization techniques. Optimization techniques for simulation must also account specifically for the randomness inherent in estimating the performance measure and satisfying the constraints of stochastic systems. We described the most widely used optimization techniques that can be effectively integrated with a simulation model. We also described techniques for post-solution analysis with the aim of theoretical unification of the existing techniques. All techniques were presented in step-by-step format to facilitate implementation in a variety of operating systems and computers, thus improving portability. General comparisons among different techniques in terms of bias, variance, and computational complexity are not possible. However, a few studies rely on real computer simulations to compare different techniques in terms of accuracy and number of iterations. Total computational effort for reduction in both the bias andvariance of the estimate depends on the computational budget allocated for a simulation optimization. No single technique works effectively andor efficiently in all cases. The simplest technique is the random selection of some points in the search region for estimating the performance measure. In this technique, one usually fixes the number of simulation runs and takes the smallest (or largest) estimated performance measure as the optimum. This technique is useful in combination with other techniques to create a multi-start technique for global optimization. The most effective technique to overcome local optimality for discrete optimization is the Tabu Search technique. In general, the probabilistic search techniques, as a class, offer several advantages over other optimization techniques based on gradients. In the random search technique, the objective function can be non-smooth or even have discontinuities. The search program is simple to implement on a computer, and it often shows good convergence characteristics in noisy environments. More importantly, it can offer the global solution in a multi-modal problem, if the technique is employed in the global sense. Convergence proofs under various conditions are given in. The Hooke-Jeeves search technique works well for unconstrained problems with less than 20 variables pattern search techniques are more effective for constrained problems. Genetic techniques are most robust and can produce near-best solutions for larger problems. The pattern search technique is most suitable for small size problems with no constraint, and it requires fewer iterations than the genetic techniques. The most promising techniques are the stochastic approximation, simultaneous perturbation, and the gradient surface methods. Stochastic approximation techniques using perturbation analysis, score function, or simultaneous perturbation gradient estimators, optimize a simulation model in a single simulation run. They do so by observing the sample values of the objective function, and based on these observations, the stochastic approximation techniques update the values of the controllable parameters while the simulation is running and without restarting the simulation. This observing-updating sequence, done repeatedly, leads to an estimate of the optimum at the end of a single-run simulation. Besides having the potential of large savings in computational effort in the simulation environment, this technique can be a powerful tool in real-time optimization and control, where observations are taken as the system is evolving over time. Response surface methods have a slow convergence rate, which makes them expensive. The gradient surface method combines the advantages of the response surface methods (RSM) and efficiency of the gradient estimation techniques, such as infinitesimal perturbation analysis, score function, simultaneous perturbation analysis, and frequency domain technique. In the gradient surface method (GSM) the gradient is estimated, and the performance gradient surface is estimated from observations at various points, similar to the RSM. Zero points of the successively approximating gradient surface are then taken as the estimates of the optimal solution. GSM is characterized by several attractive features: it is a single run technique and more efficient than RSM at each iteration step, it uses the information from all of the data points rather than just the local gradient it tries to capture the global features of the gradient surface and thereby quickly arrive in the vicinity of the optimal solution, but close to the optimum, they take many iterations to converge to stationary points. Search techniques are therefore more suitable as a second phase. The main interest is to figure out how to allocate the total available computational budget across the successive iterations. For when the decision variable is qualitative, such as finding the best system configuration, a random or permutation test is proposed. This technique starts with the selection of an appropriate test statistic, such as the absolute difference between the mean responses under two scenarios. The test value is computed for the original data set. The data are shuffled (using a different seed) the test statistic is computed for the shuffled data and the value is compared to the value of the test statistic for the original, un-shuffled data. If the statistics for the shuffled data are greater than or equal to the actual statistic for the original data, then a counter c, is incremented by 1. The process is repeated for any desired m number of times. The final step is to compute (c1)(m1), which is the significant level of the test. The null hypothesis is rejected if this significance level is less than or equal to the specified rejection level for the test. There are several important aspects to this nonparametric test. First, it enables the user to select the statistic. Second, assumptions such as normality or equality of variances made for the t-test, ranking-and-selection, and multiple-comparison procedures, are no longer needed. A generalization is the well-known bootstrap technique. What Must Be Done computational studies of techniques for systems with a large number of controllable parameters and constraints. effective combinations of several efficient techniques to achieve the best results under constraints on computational resources. development of parallel and distributed schemesdevelopment of an expert system that incorporates all available techniques. References Further Readings: Arsham H. Techniques for Monte Carlo Optimizing, Monte Carlo Methods and Applications . 4(3), 181-230, 1998. Arsham H. Stochastic Optimization of Discrete Event Systems Simulation, Microelectronics and Reliability . 36(10), 1357-1368, 1996. Fu M. and J-Q. Hu, Conditional Monte Carlo: Gradient Estimation and Optimization Applications . Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1997. Rollans S. and D. McLeish, Estimating the optimum of a stochastic system using simulation, Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation . 72, 357 - 377, 2002. Rubinstein R. and A. Shapiro, Discrete Event Systems: Sensitivity Analysis and Stochastic Optimization by the Score Function Method . John Wiley Sons, 1993. Metamodeling and the Goal seeking Problems The simulation models although simpler than the real-world system, are still a very complex way of relating input (v) to output J(v). Sometimes a simpler analytic model may be used as an auxiliary to the simulation model. This auxiliary model is often referred to as a metamodel. In many simulation applications such as systems analysis and design applications, the decision maker may not be interested in optimization but wishes to achieve a certain value for J(v), say J 0 . This is the goal-seeking problem. given a target output value J 0 of the performance and a parameterized pdf family, one must find an input value for the parameter, which generates such an output. Metamodeling The simulation models although simpler than the real-world system, are still a very complex way of relating input (v) to output J(v). Sometimes a simpler analytic model may be used as an auxiliary to the simulation model. This auxiliary model is often referred to as a metamodel. There are several techniques available for metamodeling including: design of experiments, response surface methodology, Taguchi methods, neural networks, inductive learning, and kriging. Metamodeling may have different purposes: model simplification and interpretation, optimization, what-if analysis, and generalization to models of the same type. The following polynomial model can be used as an auxiliary model. where d v v-v 0 and the primes denote derivatives. This metamodel approximates J(v) for small d v. To estimate J(v) in the neighborhood of v 0 by a linear function, we need to estimate the nominal J(v) and its first derivative. Traditionally, this derivative is estimated by crude Monte Carlo i. e. finite difference which requires rerunning the simulation model. Methods which yield enhanced efficiency and accuracy in estimating, at little additional computational (Not simulation) cost, are presented in this site. The Score Function method of estimating the first derivative is: where Sf(y v) f(y v)d Lnf(y v) dv is the Score function and differentiations is with respect to v, provided that, f(y v) exist, and f(y v) is positive for all v in V. The Score function approach can be extended in estimating the second and higher order of derivatives. For example, an estimate for the second derivative based on the Score Function method is: Where S and H S S 2 are the score and information functions, respectively, widely used in statistics literature, such as in the construction of Cramer-Rao bounds. By having gradient and Hessian in our disposal, we are able to construct a second order local metamodel using the Taylors series. An Illustrative Numerical Example: For most complex reliability systems, the performance measures such as mean time to failure (MTTF) are not available in analytical form. We resort to Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to estimate MTTF function from a family of single-parameter density functions of the components life with specific value for the parameter. The purpose of this section is to solve the inverse problem, which deals with the calculation of the components life parameters (such as MTTF) of a homogeneous subsystem, given a desired target MTTF for the system. A stochastic approximation algorithm is used to estimate the necessary controllable input parameter within a desired range of accuracy. The potential effectiveness is demonstrated by simulating a reliability system with a known analytical solution. Consider the coherent reliability sub-system with four components component 1, and 2 are in series, and component 3 and 4 also in series, however these two series of components are in parallel, as illustrated in the following Figure. All components are working independently and are homogeneous i. e. manufactured by an identical process, components having independent random lifetimes Y1, Y2, Y3, and Y4, which are distributed exponentially with rates v v 0 0.5. The system lifetime is Z (Y1,Y2,Y3,Y4 v 0 ) max min (Y3,Y4), min (Y1,Y2). It is readily can be shown that the theoretical expected lifetime of this sub-system is The underlying pdf for this system is: f(y v) v 4 exp(-v S y i ), the sum is over i 1, 2, 3, 4. Applying the Score function method, we have: S(y) f (y v) f(y v) 4v - S y i . the sum is over i 1, 2, 3, 4. H(y) f (y v) f(y v) v 2 ( S y i ) 2 - 8v ( S y i ) 12 v 2 , the sums are over i 1, 2, 3, 4. The estimated average lifetime and its derivative for the nominal system with v v 0 0.5, are: respectively, where Y i, j is the j th observation for the i th component (i 1, 2, 3, 4). We have performed a Monte Carlo experiment for this system by generating n 10000 independent replications using SIMSCRIPT II.5 random number streams 1 through 4 to generate exponential random variables Y1, Y2, Y3, Y4. respectively, on a VAX system. The estimated performance is J(0.5) 1.5024, with a standard error of 0.0348. The first and second derivatives estimates are -3.0933 and 12.1177 with standard errors of 0.1126 and 1.3321, respectively. The response surface approximation in the neighborhood of v 0.5 is: J(v) 1.5024 (v - 0.5) (-3.0933) (v - 0.5) 2 (12.1177)2 6.0589v 2 - 9.1522v 4.5638 A numerical comparison based on exact and the approximation by this metamodel reveals that the largest absolute error is only 0.33 for any v in the range of 0.40, 0.60. This error could be reduced by either more accurate estimates of the derivatives andor using a higher order Taylor expansion. A comparison of the errors indicates that the errors are smaller and more stable in the direction of increasing v. This behavior is partly due to the fact that lifetimes are exponentially distributed with variance 1v. Therefore, increasing v causes less variance than the nominal system (with v 0.50). Goal seeking problem In many systems modeling and simulation applications, the decision maker may not be interested in optimization but wishes to achieve a certain value for J(v), say J 0 . This is the goal-seeking problem. given a target output value J 0 of the performance and a parameterized pdf family, one must find an input value for the parameter, which generates such an output. When is a controllable input, the decision maker may be interested in the goal-seeking problem: namely, what change of the input parameter will achieve a desired change in the output value. Another application of the goal-seeking problem arises when we want to adapt a model to satisfy a new equality constraint with some stochastic functions. We may apply the search techniques, but the goal-seeking problem can be considered as an interpolation based on a meta-model. In this approach, one generates a response surface function for J(v). Finally, one uses the fitted function to interpolate for the unknown parameter. This approach is tedious, time-consuming, and costly moreover, in a random environment, the fitted model might have unstable coefficients. For a given J(v) the estimated d v, using the first order approximation is: provided that the denominator does not vanish for all v 0 in set V. The Goal-seeker Module: The goal-seeking problem can be solved as a simulation problem. By this approach, we are able to apply variance reduction techniques (VRT) used in the simulation literature. Specifically, the solution to the goal-seeking problem is the unique solution of the stochastic equation J(v) - J 0 0. The problem is to solve this stochastic equation by a suitable experimental design, to ensure convergence. The following is a Robbins - Monro (R-M) type technique. where d j is any divergent sequence of positive numbers. Under this conditions, d v J 0 - J(v j ) converges to approach zero while dampening the effect of the simulation random errors. These conditions are satisfied, for example, by the harmonic sequence d j 1j. With this choice, the rate of reduction of di is very high initially but may reduce to very small steps as we approach the root. Therefore, a better choice is, for example d j 9 (9 j). This technique involves placing experiment i1 according to the outcome of experiment i immediately preceding it, as is depicted in the following Figure: Under these not unreasonable conditions, this algorithm will converge in mean square moreover, it is an almost sure convergence. Finally, as in Newtons root-finding method, it is impossible to assert that the method converges for just any initial v v 0 . even though J(v) may satisfy the Lipschits condition over set V. Indeed, if the initial value v 0 is sufficiently close to the solution, which is usually the case, then this algorithm requires only a few iterations to obtain a solution with very high accuracy. An application of the goal-seeker module arises when we want to adapt a model to satisfy a new equality constraint (condition) for some stochastic function. The proposed technique can also be used to solve integral equations by embedding the Importance Sampling techniques within a Monte Carlo sampling. One may extend the proposed methodology to the inverse problems with two or more unknown parameters design by considering two or more relevant outputs to ensure uniqueness. By this generalization we could construct a linear (or even nonlinear) system of stochastic equations to be solved simultaneously by a multidimensional version of the proposed algorithm. The simulation design is more involved for problems with more than a few parameters. References and Further Readings: Arsham H. The Use of Simulation in Discrete Event Dynamic Systems Design, Journal of Systems Science . 31(5), 563-573, 2000. Arsham H. Input Parameters to Achieve Target Performance in Stochastic Systems: A Simulation-based Approach, Inverse Problems in Engineering . 7(4), 363-384, 1999. Arsham H. Goal Seeking Problem in Discrete Event Systems Simulation, Microelectronics and Reliability . 37(3), 391-395, 1997. Batmaz I. and S. Tunali, Small response surface designs for metamodel estimation, European Journal of Operational Research . 145(3), 455-470, 2003. Ibidapo-Obe O. O. Asaolu, and A. Badiru, A New Method for the Numerical Solution of Simultaneous Nonlinear Equations, Applied Mathematics and Computation . 125(1), 133-140, 2002. Lamb J. and R. Cheng, Optimal allocation of runs in a simulation metamodel with several independent variables, Operations Research Letters . 30(3), 189-194, 2002. Simpson T. J. Poplinski, P. Koch, and J. Allen, Metamodels for Computer-based Engineering Design: Survey and Recommendations, Engineering with Computers . 17(2), 129-150, 2001. Tsai C-Sh. Evaluation and optimisation of integrated manufacturing system operations using Taguchs experiment design in computer simulation, Computers And Industrial Engineering . 43(3), 591-604, 2002. What-if Analysis Techniques Introduction The simulation models are often subject to errors caused by the estimated parameter(s) of underlying input distribution function. What-if analysis is needed to establish confidence with respect to small changes in the parameters of the input distributions. However the direct approach to what-if analysis requires a separate simulation run for each input value. Since this is often inhibited by cost, as an alternative, what people are basically doing in practice is to plot results and use a simple linear interpolationextrapolation. This section presents some simulation-based techniques that utilize the current information for estimating performance function for several scenarios without any additional simulation runs. Simulation continues to be the primary method by which system analysts obtain information about analysis of complex stochastic systems. In almost all simulation models, an expectedvalue can express the systems performance. Consider a system with continuous parameter v 206 V, where V is the feasible region. Let be the steady state expected performance measure, where Y is a random vector with known probability density function (pdf), f(y v) depends on v, and Z is the performance measure. In discrete event systems, Monte Carlo simulation is usually needed to estimate J(v) for a given value v. By the law of large numbers where y i . i 1, 2. n are independent, identically distributed, random vector realizations of Y from f (y v ), and n is the number of independent replications. This is an unbiased estimator for J(v) and converges to J(v) by law of large numbers. There are strong motivations for estimating the expected performance measure J(v) for a small change in v to v d v, that is to solve the so-called what if problem. The simulationist must meet managerial demands to consider model validation and cope with uncertainty in the estimation of v. Adaptation of a model to new environments also requires an adjustment in v. An obvious solution to the what if problem is the Crude Monte Carlo (CMC) method, which estimates J(v d v) for each v separately by rerunning the system for each v d v. Therefore costs in CPU time can be prohibitive The use of simulation as a tool to design complex computer stochastic systems is often inhibited by cost. Extensive simulation is needed to estimate performance measures for changes in the input parameters. As as an alternative, what people are basically doing in practice is to plot results of a few simulation runs and use a simple linear interpolationextrapolation. In this section we consider the What-if analysis problem by extending the information obtained from a single run at the nominal value of parameter v to the closed neighborhood. We also present the use of results from runs at two or more points over the intervening interval. We refer to the former as extrapolation and the latter as interpolation by simulation. The results are obtained by some computational cost as opposed to simulation cost . Therefore, the proposed techniques are for estimating a performance measure at multiple settings from a simulation at a nominal value. Likelihood Ratio (LR) Method A model based on Radon-Nikodym theorem to estimate J(v d v) for stochastic systems in a single run is as follows: where the likelihood ratio W is: W f(y v d v) f(y v) adjusts the sample path, provided f(y v) does not vanish. Notice that by this change of probability space, we are using the common realization as J(v). The generated random vector y is roughly representative of Y, with f(v). Each of these random observations, could also hypothetically came from f(v d v). W weights the observations according to this phenomenon. Therefore, the What-if estimate is: which is based on only one sample path of the system with parameter v and the simulation for the system with v d v is not required. Unfortunately LR produces a larger variance compared with CMC. However, since E(W)1, the following variance reduction techniques (VRT) may improve the estimate. Exponential Tangential in Expectation Method In the statistical literature the efficient score function is defined to be the gradient S(y) d Ln f(y v) dv We consider the exponential (approximation) model for J(v d v) in a first derivative neighborhood of v by: J(v d v) E Z(y). exp d vS(y) Eexp( d S(y)) Now we are able to estimate J(v d v) based on n independent replications as follows: Taylor Expansion of Response Function The following linear Taylor model can be used as an auxiliary model. J(v d v) J(v) d v. J (v) . where the prime denotes derivative. This metamodel approximates J(v d v)) for small d v. For this estimate, we need to estimate the nominal J(v) and its first derivative. Traditionally, this derivative is estimated by crude Monte Carlo i. e. finite difference, which requires rerunning the simulation model. Methods which yield enhanced efficiency and accuracy in estimating, at little additional cost, are of great value. There are few ways to obtain efficiently the derivatives of the output with respect to an input parameter as presented earlier on this site. The most straightforward method is the Score Function (SF). The SF approach is the major method for estimating the performance measure and its derivative, while observing only a single sample path from the underlying system. The basic idea of SF is that the derivative of the performance function, J(v), is expressed as expectation with respect to the same distribution as the performance measure itself. Therefore, for example, using the estimated values of J(v) and its derivative J(v), the estimated J(v d v) is: VarJ(v d v) VarJ(v) ( d v) 2 VarJ(v) 2 d v CovJ(v), J(v). This variation is needed for constructing a confidence interval for the perturbed estimate. Interpolation Techniques Given two points, v1 and v2 (scalars only) sufficiently close, one may simulate at these two points then interpolates for any desired points in between. Assuming the given v1 and v2 are sufficiently close and looks for the best linear interpolation in the sense of minimum error on the interval. Clearly, Similar to the Likelihood Ratio approach, this can be written as: where the likelihood ratios W1 and W2 are W1 f(y v) f(y v1) and W2 f(y v) f(y v2), respectively. One obvious choice is f f(y v1) f(y v1)f(y v2). This method can easily extended to k-point interpolation. For 2-point interpolation, if we let f to be constant within the interval 0, 1, then the linear interpolated what-if estimated value is: where the two estimates on the RHS of are two independent Likelihood Ratio extrapolations using the two end-points. We define f as the f in this convex combination with the minimum error in the estimate. That is, it minimizes By the first order necessary and sufficient conditions, the optimal f is: Thus, the best linear interpolation for any point in interval v1, v2 is: which is the optimal interpolation in the sense of having minimum variance. Conclusions Further Readings Estimating system performance for several scenarios via simulation generally requires a separate simulation run for each scenario. In some very special cases, such as the exponential density f(y v)ve - vy. one could have obtained the perturbed estimate using Perturbation Analysis directly as follow. Clearly, one can generate random variate Y by using the following inverse transformation: where Ln is the natural logarithm and U i is a random number distributed Uniformly 0,1. In the case of perturbed v, the counterpart realization using the same U i is Clearly, this single run approach is limited, since the inverse transformation is not always available in closed form. The following Figure illustrates the Perturbation Analysis Method: Since the Perturbation Analysis Approach has this serious limitation, for this reason, we presented some techniques for estimating performance for several scenarios using a single-sample path, such as the Likelihood Ratio method, which is illustrated in the following Figure. Research Topics: Items for further research include: i) to introduce efficient variance reduction and bias reduction techniques with a view to improving the accuracy of the existing and the proposed methods ii) to incorporate the result of this study in a random search optimization technique. In this approach one can generate a number of points in the feasible region uniformly distributed on the surface of a hyper-sphere each stage the value of the performance measure is with a specified radius centered at a starting point. At estimated at the center (as a nominal value). Perturbation analysis is used to estimate the performance measure at the sequence of points on the hyper-sphere. The best point (depending whether the problem is max or min) is used as the center of a smaller hyper - sphere. Iterating in this fashion one can capture the optimal solution within a hyper-sphere with a specified small enough radius. Clearly, this approach could be considered as a sequential self-adaptive optimization technique. iii) to estimate the sensitivities i. e. the gradient, Hessian, etc. of J(v) can be approximated using finite difference. For example the first derivative can be obtained in a single run using the Likelihood Ratio method as follows: the sums are over all i, i 1, 2, 3. n, where The last two estimators may induce some variance reductions. iv) Other interpolation techniques are also possible. The most promising one is based on Kriging. This technique gives more weight to neighboring realizations, and is widely used in geo-statistics. Other items for further research include some experimentation on large and complex systems such as a large Jacksonian network with routing that includes feedback loops in order to study the efficiency of the presented technique. References Further Readings: Arsham H. Performance Extrapolation in Discrete-event Systems Simulation, Journal of Systems Science . 27(9), 863-869, 1996. Arsham H. A Simulation Technique for Estimation in Perturbed Stochastic Activity Networks, Simulation . 58(8), 258-267, 1992. Arsham H. Perturbation Analysis in Discrete-Event Simulation, Modelling and Simulation . 11(1), 21-28, 1991. Arsham H. What-if Analysis in Computer Simulation Models: A Comparative Survey with Some Extensions, Mathematical and Computer Modelling . 13(1), 101-106, 1990. Arsham H. Feuerverger, A. McLeish, D. Kreimer J. and Rubinstein R. Sensitivity analysis and the what-if problem in simulation analysis, Mathematical and Computer Modelling . 12(1), 193-219, 1989. PDF Version The Copyright Statement: The fair use, according to the 1996 Fair Use Guidelines for Educational Multimedia. of materials presented on this Web site is permitted for non-commercial and classroom purposes only. This site may be mirrored intact (including these notices), on any server with public access. All files are available at home. ubalt. eduntsbarshBusiness-stat for mirroring. Kindly e-mail me your comments, suggestions, and concerns. Takk skal du ha. This site was launched on 2111995, and its intellectual materials have been thoroughly revised on a yearly basis. The current version is the 9 th Edition. All external links are checked once a month. EOF: 211 1995-2015.
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